I try not to write too many articles that aren’t about money. However, I’ve had a rule over the last few years… when the Patriots are in the Super Bowl, I have to write an (obviously rose-colored) analysis.
I’ve written around 2500 articles about personal finance, so please excuse me while I use some publishing space for something off-topic. I understand if this isn’t your thing. I’m hoping to get a new article out late Monday or early Tuesday.
Typically these articles are 3000 words (i.e. very long). This is going to be very short because I’m writing this just a couple hours before game time. Let’s dig in:
Why the LA Rams Could Win
I want to start off with the Rams, because I don’t know them as well as the Patriots. I do remember the off-season thinking, “How are the Rams able to add star after star with the salary cap?”
As Mike Reiss notes, “The Rams went all-in this year in spending $221 million in cash to build their roster, which they had the luxury of doing with quarterback Jared Goff still playing on his rookie contract. That is about $50 million more in cash spent this year by the Patriots, who have traditionally focused on sustainability on a year-to-year basis.”
Having more money to spend on skill players gives the Rams a lot of room for extra star power. The Rams went all-in to win the Super Bowl now.
When it comes to winning, having the team with more star players has a big advantage. (I’m practicing trying to sound like Bill Belichick with an answer that is so common sense that it doesn’t give any insight.)
Why the New England Patriots Could Win
As you can imagine from someone who is a Patriots’ fan, I have a few reasons why the Patriots will win:
- The Patriots haven’t been sacked in the postseason – They’ve faced some great pass rushers from the Chargers and Chiefs and the offensive line kept Tom Brady clean. The Rams have great pass rushers in Suh and Donald and this could be their biggest challenge. I think the Patriots have shown that they are their best against the best and I expect the same to continue.
- The Patriots have been playing their best – Sometimes it’s most important to peak at the right time. The Patriots have had growing pains throughout the season, but they’ve played their best two games in the playoffs. The defense has played extremely well over the past 5 games. The team playing in the Super Bowl is very different than the one playing earlier in the season.
- It’s a Patriots home game – It’s supposed to be a neutral field, but the crowd looks to be about 70% Patriots fans. Maybe the Rams are still trying to find their market in LA. Maybe the Rams fans in St. Louis dropped them after they abandoned the city to go to LA. Maybe New England fans feel that this might be their last chance to see Brady in a Super Bowl.
- The Patriots have more experience – Many of the players have been to the Super Bowl. It’s a unique game with the extreme microscope and the longer halftime. It may matter much once the game starts, but I’d rather be the team with more experience.
The Rams have the talent advantage. I’ve also jinxed the Patriots by legally betting on the Patriots.
The Patriots’ Super Bowls have all been close and nearly given me heart attacks. I think it’s going to be different this time. I’m picking a 31-20 Patriots win.