Lazy Man and Money

The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide (Part 4)

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I try not to write too many articles that aren’t about money. However, I’ve had a rule over the last few years… when the Patriots are in the Super Bowl, I have to write an (obviously rose-colored) analysis.

I’ve written around 2500 articles about personal finance, so please excuse me while I use some publishing space for something off-topic. I understand if this isn’t your thing. I’m hoping to get a new article out late Monday or early Tuesday.

If you want to re-live the past, you can catch, the original, part 2, and part 3.

Typically these articles are 3000 words (i.e. very long). This is going to be very short because I’m writing this just a couple hours before game time. Let’s dig in:

Why the LA Rams Could Win

I want to start off with the Rams, because I don’t know them as well as the Patriots. I do remember the off-season thinking, “How are the Rams able to add star after star with the salary cap?”

As Mike Reiss notes, “The Rams went all-in this year in spending $221 million in cash to build their roster, which they had the luxury of doing with quarterback Jared Goff still playing on his rookie contract. That is about $50 million more in cash spent this year by the Patriots, who have traditionally focused on sustainability on a year-to-year basis.”

Having more money to spend on skill players gives the Rams a lot of room for extra star power. The Rams went all-in to win the Super Bowl now.

When it comes to winning, having the team with more star players has a big advantage. (I’m practicing trying to sound like Bill Belichick with an answer that is so common sense that it doesn’t give any insight.)

Why the New England Patriots Could Win

As you can imagine from someone who is a Patriots’ fan, I have a few reasons why the Patriots will win:

  • The Patriots haven’t been sacked in the postseason – They’ve faced some great pass rushers from the Chargers and Chiefs and the offensive line kept Tom Brady clean. The Rams have great pass rushers in Suh and Donald and this could be their biggest challenge. I think the Patriots have shown that they are their best against the best and I expect the same to continue.
  • The Patriots have been playing their best – Sometimes it’s most important to peak at the right time. The Patriots have had growing pains throughout the season, but they’ve played their best two games in the playoffs. The defense has played extremely well over the past 5 games. The team playing in the Super Bowl is very different than the one playing earlier in the season.
  • It’s a Patriots home game – It’s supposed to be a neutral field, but the crowd looks to be about 70% Patriots fans. Maybe the Rams are still trying to find their market in LA. Maybe the Rams fans in St. Louis dropped them after they abandoned the city to go to LA. Maybe New England fans feel that this might be their last chance to see Brady in a Super Bowl.
  • The Patriots have more experience – Many of the players have been to the Super Bowl. It’s a unique game with the extreme microscope and the longer halftime. It may matter much once the game starts, but I’d rather be the team with more experience.

Final Prediction

The Rams have the talent advantage. I’ve also jinxed the Patriots by legally betting on the Patriots.

The Patriots’ Super Bowls have all been close and nearly given me heart attacks. I think it’s going to be different this time. I’m picking a 31-20 Patriots win.

The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide (Part 3)

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When I started this blog in 2006, I left the door open for a few off-topic blog posts. Warning, this is going to be one of those blog posts.

You may have missed The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide from 2015 when I broke down the Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl.

I wish I could have predicted the stock market as well as I predicted the game. Maybe I just got lucky as things rarely play out as they appear on paper. I had noted that Michael Bennett was going to be a key, but he got injured, which changed the game. I had a key to the game of “Don’t get beat by ‘the catch'” and Seattle did have that catch with a player on the ground getting the tipped ball. I predicted that Edelman and Vereen could do some damage. I didn’t get the score right, but I feel I got enough right.

You also may have missed The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide (Part 2). I got a lot of things wrong and a few things right. My conclusion was a mixed bag:

“I’m going with the Patriots 38-29. I honestly feel it could be a 6 point game, but I’m going larger because I think the Patriots could put Atlanta in a hole if they force some field goals.”

The Patriots ended up winning 34-28… a 6 point game. So while I got the score and the difference close, the journey there was very, very different as we all know.

As I said in the guide last year:

“I don’t have too many rules in life, but one of them is that I have to analyze the Super Bowl when the Patriots are in it. I know that 44 states hate the Patriots…

However, I was a fan before their horrific 1-15 season was overshadowed by a Zeke Mowatt’s sexual harassment of a female reporter.

Imagine your team losing 15 of 16 games being the highlight of the season.”

This was before I can ever remember hearing the name Harvey Weinstein. Imagine how bad the harassment had to be to stand out more than 25 years ago. I hope you’ll excuse this New Englander for celebrating an embarrassment of riches over the last 17 years. I remember what it’s like to be a pauper.

This is going to be biased. It can’t NOT be.

However, before we get started, let’s reflect a bit on sportsmanship. There are a thousand stories going about these about these football teams. Now that I’m a father with kids in school, I recognize that side of things more.

So if you are an Eagles fan, I want to say this story about sending a bus driver is awesome! I love Philadelphia and been there a few times for a couple of days. I say Pat’s over Geno’s. My Facebook image is the First Amendment in People’s Plaza. I used to love playing Madden (92 I think) with the Eagles having a great secondary that could intercept anything.

On the Patriots side, this middle school rally is incredible.

However you feel about the teams, I hope we can focus on celebrating the wonderful ways that sports can bring a community together. It might not feel that way after the game.

However, I’d say that both teams are “playing with the house’s money.” The Patriots legacy was cemented long ago. The Eagles are in the Super Bowl with their back-up quarterback. Their future is bright and they should be in the playoffs for years. I totally understand if Eagles fans don’t feel that way, but when Wentz got injured, you’d take playing in the Super Bowl, right? I know if it was Brady who got injured and Hoyer picked up the baton, I’d feel that a win is a bonus.

Let’s dig in.

Super Bowl LII Analysis

In the first version of my Super Bowl Analysis, I broke down every area of both teams. It was a lot easier because I knew the Seahawks well as they had won the Super Bowl the year before. We know what Richard Sherman and Russel Wilson can do, right?

In the next version, it was more difficult. I didn’t know as much about the Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan had always been above average, but he was great last year. It can be hard to analyze when there’s inconsistent performance year to year.

I’d say that I mailed it in last year, but I fear the analysis here will be even worse. I haven’t had time to research the Eagles players to analyze the match-ups. I did find a little analysis of the game. Unfortunately, it seemed that most of the articles I read were about anything and everything except the X’s and O’s. I guess that’s what happens when you have a thousand writers focusing on stories that are applicable to those who aren’t football fans.

Eagles Offense vs. the Patriots Defense

The Eagles have a back-up quarterback, Nick Foles, but he’s not an ordinary back-up. He’s got some ups and downs. When he’s going well, he’s extremely good. If the Eagles get good Foles, they can score a lot of points. They got a lot of very good skill players.

The Patriots secondary is extremely good, but their front seven has a lot of journeymen especially with Hightower out for the season.

The Patriots are good at limiting teams to field goals and keeping the points down. They are probably the best at situational football and not making mistakes. That will help cover up some of the inexperience in the front seven.

Patriots Offense vs. the Eagles Defense

The Patriots offense is one of the best in football, as it’s lead by the best player to ever play football, Tom Brady. Unfortunately for Brady, his top receiver, Julian Edelman is injured for the season. Brady’s used to not having Edelman this year. He’s still got plenty of weapons.

It’s been said many times that the way to stop Brady is to get pressure from the front 4. If you blitz a 5th, Brady will find the open guy. The Eagles have the people to get there with their top 4, but the Patriots have been very good at protecting it lately.

The other big mismatch for New England is that one of their strengths, passing to the tight end and running backs, is one of Philly’s biggest weaknesses. This is major factor in my prediction.

It’s almost game time, so:

Final Thoughts and Pick

I watched ESPN’s 30 for 30 production, The Two Bills that debuted this last week. As I watched them show the mid-1980s NY Giants, I realized that Bill Belichick was possibly the best coach in football back then. He did things that football had never seen like use the dime formation all game.

As a Patriots fan with my biases clear, you can probably tell that I’m going to take the favorite. A lot of people are predicting a close game because the Patriots Super Bowls are always close. I don’t think that’s intentional. I also don’t think what happened in 2003 is directly going to impact the play in 2018.

The top Patriots beat writer, Mike Reiss, has the Patriots winning 30-17. I really like that score. I don’t want to copy that, so I’ll add a field goal and call it 33-20. I feel like I should give more credit to to the Eagles as they are a very good team. I just think their coach/quarterback situation isn’t on par with the Patriots. I don’t know if it’s a 13-point difference, but sometimes things can snowball in football. I think this will be one of those games.

And if the Eagles’ win, their owner Jeffrey Lurie is from Boston and went to my alma mater, Brandeis. Silver linings for the win.

The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide (Part 2)

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I don’t have too many rules in life, but one of them is that I have to analyze the Super Bowl when the Patriots are in it. I know that 44 states hate the Patriots with the passion of some political candidates*.

However, I was a fan before their horrific 1-15 season was overshadowed by a Zeke Mowatt’s sexual harassment of a female reporter.

Imagine your team losing 15 of 16 games being the highlight of the season.

Now imagine that the history of your team was actually worse than that… yes it was truly that bad.

… and yes those bleachers at Sullivan stadium were really as bad as described in that article. When I was a kid, there were two classes of families, those who went to sold-out Celtics games to see Larry Bird in his prime… and those who went to Patriots games to freeze their behinds off sitting on snowy metal bleachers in the middle of December. I was the later.

So with no apologizes, I’m going to present an analysis of what I expect to happen in Super Bowl LI. Yes, it is going to be biased.

That said, I actually like the Falcons. They were a favorite of mine to play with in the early Madden games. Oh, they also have a Boston College quarterback, so arguably my local bias is in a no-lose situation.

I also know that my predictions may mean nothing, but my first Super Bowl Analysis Guide was almost perfectly dead-on, down to the amazing catch in the last minute. I specifically wrote:

“Don’t get beat by ‘the catch.’ The last two Super Bowls were highlighted by nearly impossible catches. The first the helmet catch by Tyree. The second by the long sideline catching by Manningham. By almost all accounts it is going to be a close game so a play like this could be the difference of whether we are talking about Brady being the best QB of all time or losing three straight Super Bowls. It’s insane, because he wasn’t on the field for either iconic catch. People magnify a few plays in a Super Bowl to overshadow a whole career with thousands of passes.”

Seattle made “the catch”, but Malcolm Butler made “the interception” which was the difference.

The Patriots couldn’t stop Bennett (one of my keys to the game), but brought the attack of the Lilliputians with Edelman and Vereen doing damage.

The disclaimers are out of the way. My chest-thumping for the one-time that a football game worked out as I thought it might is out of the way.

The only left is to dig into the actual analysis.

Super Bowl LI Analysis

If you thought the above was procrastinating you wouldn’t be entirely wrong.

For my last Super Bowl analysis, I spent at least 27 hours a day reading about the Seattle Seahawks to understand their depth chart… but I was already familiar with the team because they won the Super Bowl the previous year.

Falcons Analysis

These Falcons seemingly came from nowhere. They were 8-8 last year and 11-5 this year. It’s often said that the Patriots “failure” in the past 13 years is that they missed the playoffs in 2008 when Tom Brady got injured. They were 11-5, same as the Falcons this year. My point? Sometimes 11-5 gets you a playoff bye (i.e. Falcons this year), sometimes it’s good enough for a wild card (i.e. NY Giants this year), and sometimes it means you don’t make the playoffs at all (i.e. 2008 Patriots**).

Bill Parcells is famous for saying, “You are what your record says you are.” Allow me to suggest that the Hall of Fame coach was wrong. Wins and losses get you to the game… we can use statistical analysis to make some rough (and often bad) predictions on how that game might go.

The most basic analysis (Points Forwarded vs. Points Against… or “PF-PA”) of the Falcons says that they are great team. They scored 134 more points than their opponents. That’s the best in the NFC and second best to the Patriots 191 PF-PA. (The Patriots faced an easy schedule so that number might be inflated – which we’ll save for later). Only the Cowboys came close with a 115 number.

Last year, the following teams had a higher PF-PA than Atlanta’s 134… Patriots (150), Bengals (140), Panthers (192), Cardinals (176), Seahawks (146). The Super Bowl Champions (Denver Broncos) weren’t on the list. They got hot at the right time… and it’s all about the matchups. My point here is dual-fold:

1) Atlanta’s PF-PA is a better indicator than their record… and it’s top tier this year. They are deserving champions.
2) Sometimes teams catch fire in the playoffs… Denver last year. It seems that Atlanta has done that as well, which bodes well for them.

Last time I did an exhaustive analysis of the each team at each position. I don’t feel I know the Falcons well enough to do that. So I’ll take the “Lazy Man’s” approach and address the basics…

Falcons’ Offense vs. Patriots’ Defense

The Falcons have the top scoring offense in the NFL. That’s not fake news or alternative stats. They scored 33.8 points per game… that’s amazing.

They have an MVP QB*** and a great offense. I haven’t spent a lot of time analyzing the Falcon’s depth charts, but here are my basic (biased) thoughts.

The Patriots focus on stopping the run. Going into the AFC Championship, the Patriots hadn’t allowed a 90-yard rusher in last 24 games. It’s now 25 games. The Patriots always play a “stop the run first” defense. They are so focused on shutting down the opponents’ running game that they don’t rush the passer. This is why they have the #2 run defense in the NFL. Atlanta has the #5 rushing offense. However, a lot of that was behind a healthier Alex Mack. It seems he has a serious injury that limit him.

I’m tempted to say that the Falcons simply won’t be able to run the ball, because of the Mack injury and simply that no one runs well against the Patriots. However, the Falcons have great balance with their MVP-worthy quarterback and receivers. The Patriots can’t just focus on stopping the run or Matt Ryan will show them what 4 touchdown passes look like.

When I look at the Falcons passing offense, things get more interesting. Obviously Julio Jones is a superstar receiver, perhaps the best in the game. Mohamed Sanu is a great receiver as well. I don’t know much about Taylor Gabriel, but he seems to be the third WR on the depth chart.

I expect the Patriots to defend the Falcons by putting Eric Rowe on Julio Jones with a lot of safety help from Devon McCourty. The Patriots often “double team” the opponents’ best player with their 2nd or 3rd best players to take them out of the game. I expect the Patriots to put their superstar cornerback, Malcolm Bulter, on Sanu. There’s a huge size mismatch there (in Atlanta’s favor), so I could be completely wrong and they could go with the taller Rowe on Sanu. However, Butler has shut down better receivers (Antonio Brown), so it is worth a shot. Also, Sanu is from Rutgers and the Patriots are known for their Rutgers secondary… there’s history there.

This leaves the Patriots’ Logan Ryan on Taylor Gabriel. I don’t know much about Gabriel, but Ryan is a “red-chip” quality player. Patriots fans will take their #2 cornerback on an opponents 3rd WR all day.

The Patriots would have to use 4 players, but they’d have an advantage against the top 3 Falcon’s wide receivers.

However, Altanta likes to pass their running backs. Their two top combined for 86 receptions more than any individual receiver. It will be up to the Patriots’ Chung and their linebackers to cover them. That’s not a match in the Patriots’ favor.

If I’m the Falcons, I use Julio Jones as a decoy to clear two Patriots defenders (the cornerback and a safety) to one side of the field and try to find a mismatch with a running back on a linebacker with little safety help. In my opinion that will be the key match-up.

Patriots’ Offense vs. Falcons’ Defense

There’s a lot of talk about the Falcon’s Offense being the best in the NFL and it’s well-deserved. There’s much less talk about the Patriots’ offense being just a shade behind in points per game when Brady was the QB.

Having watched every Patriots game this year, there were many games where the Patriots ran out the clock with Blount. More than any other season, I’ve seen the Patriots manage games to limit injuries. With a lead they’ll run out the last 10 minutes of the fourth quarter and depend on the defense to get one stop or hold the other team to a field goal. The point is that the Patriots’ offense might be as good as the Falcons, but they never had to get in shoot-outs.

On the flip side, the Patriots had a weak schedule. It’s easier to score points and prevent them when the competition is weak.

I don’t know much about the Falcon’s defense other than the stats, which aren’t too good. They are near the bottom of the league. From what I’ve read the Atlanta defense is young and they have some upside. The other problem is that Atlanta is terrible at tackling and the Patriots might be the best at forcing missed tackles and creating Yards After Catch (YAC). It’s a ginormous mismatch.

Final Thoughts and Pick

I simply see too many things going the Patriots way in this one. They’ve been healthy (minus Gronk), while Atlanta is injured (Mack). They have the defense they haven’t had in years and an offense that can arguably be as good as Atlanta’s.

My pick plays right into those thoughts and my obvious bias.

I’m going with the Patriots 38-29. I honestly feel it could be a 6 point game, but I’m going larger because I think the Patriots could put Atlanta in a hole if they force some field goals.

Notes and Further Biased Commentary

* Did you know that Patriots haters invented “alternative facts” and “fake news” years ago? There are still people (Marshall Faulk) who said that the Patriots taped the Rams practice in 2001. There was a story that ran after SpyGate, but it was quickly retracted as an attention-grabbing scheme. (And if the Patriots taped the Rams practice back then, the results should have showed it. The Rams had about 150 more yards of offense. Brady passed for 145 yards total. The Rams turned the ball over 3 times (their own fault). The Rams statistically dominated the game, but they made a few too many errors in a close game.

DeflateGate was the original “fake news.” The NFL planted a story about 11 of 12 deflated by over 2 each with a trusted ESPN news source (Chris Mortensen) which turned out to be completely false. The real facts were that the balls exhibited proper air pressure with relation to the ideal gas law. Scientists from top universities from all over the country weighed in to explain it. It would have been similar to the NBA punishing Michael Jordan (and the Bulls) for defying the law of gravity.

** Football nerds who are reading this might be interested in looking at that NFL 2008 season. The Patriots lead the division in point differential by a large margin, and were 6th in the NFL overall. They didn’t qualify for one of the 12 playoff spots, due to the 10th tie-braker or something like that. The 8-8 Chargers made the playoffs beating up on a very weak division, while an 11-5 team in a very competitive division went home. The Ravens and Steelers also beat up on a weak division. The 3rd best team in the AFC East (the NY Jets) had a 9-7 record, which was better than the Chargers that year… even in the Chargers weak division.

Miami, who won the division and got the home game got, predictably, blown out badly.

Yes, I’m a bit bitter. I think Detroit Lions fans can agree with me… that season never happened, right?

*** The MVP shouldn’t have been a debate. Ryan went 11-5 and Brady went 11-1. Ryan had his elite receiving weapon (Julio Jones) for almost the entire season. Brady lost his elite receiving weapon (Rob Gronkowski) early on. Despite that, Tom Brady was nearly perfect. Turn the tables, and ask yourself if Ryan would have put his numbers without Julio Jones and if Brady’s numbers would have been better with Gronk. Some may penalize Brady for missing 4 games, but the ideal gas law (like gravity) cleared him and showed measurements was just natural physics. If Brady played in those 4 games, we might presume that he’d have gone 4-0, arguably making him 15-1.

Some say that Brady’s contribution wasn’t of value because the team went 3-1 without him. That’s lazy narrative. The Patriots were shut out by the Bills in the last game because they were playing with an injured 3rd string rookie QB, who went on IR after Brady was activated. Brady clearly took the team from rock bottom to the #1 seed in the AFC. Brady’s value couldn’t be stated higher.

And for anyone who says that Tom Brady had zero value to the Patriots during those first 4 games (as I have read), you are completely wrong. Brady took the suspension rather than fighting for what’s right at the Supreme Court level, which was his option. The fight wasn’t about deflating footballs, but whether the commissioner of the NFL can do whatever he wants. Brady could have challenged it to that level, but then he might have missed the post-season. He took his unjust penalty early and helped Garoppolo get ready to lead the team.

Putting your team ahead of your personal reputation is a great sacrifice. I don’t think too many players in professional sports do that. I’m obviously biased, but that is a ginormous point in Brady’s favor that can’t be overlooked. It’s a feather in his cap that he came from it with no live action to exceptional performance.

The Epic Super Bowl Analysis Guide

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Tomorrow is the Super Bowl. For many, that means some great commercials. For fans of football, it’s billed as possibly the closest match-up in the history of Super Bowls.

For fans of two geographic regions, there’s a little more on the line. If you look at geographic map of NFL teams there’s no franchise close to Seattle. On the other hand, the New England Patriots are the only team named for the geographic region they represent. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that each team represents 5 states, which is interesting.

For me, a Boston native, it’s in a whole new stratosphere. I’m a huge fan of football and who doesn’t like funny commercials?

The Patriots have been my team for years. I was a fan long before the 1990 team that went 1-15 (a 2-point win in week 2 the only positive thing) that was low-lighted by the sexual harassment of a female reporter in the locker room. (That was actually deserving of nationwide criticism unlike SpyGate or DeflateGate.)

Given the above, I consider it a national holiday unlike any other. I like to think that with the commercials, it at least has something for everyone.

For the people interested in the game, I thought I’d provide a lot of analysis and a prediction. I don’t think my analysis will be unique in any particular way, but I’ll cite sources from quite a few different sites. Quite often big media sites will stick on only showing information from their own authors. I have no skin in the game, so everything is fair.

Position by Position Analysis

I thought I’d start off by analyzing each position overall and giving them a grade from 1-10. Much of this analysis relies on the awesome premium stats from ProFootballFocus. They are a little pricey at $27 a year, but I find it the most valuable resource for looking up a player and seeing what his talent level is. Plus, I like to reward people who do great work.

Secondary

Typically most analysis would start at the quarterbacks, but this is one of the most interesting match-ups due to the extreme talent on both teams.

Seattle: 9 – They have three Pro Bowlers in the secondary, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Kam Chancellor. Typically they’d get a perfect 10 score, they are truly that good. However, each of them is playing at less than 100% health. They will all be on the field, but I have to take their grade down a notch to account for the injuries.

New England: 9 – They have Pro-Bowler Darrelle Revis. Their safety, Devin McCourty tends to get snubbed from the Pro-Bowl, but he’s good enough to grade better (using PFF) than Seattle’s Kam Chancellor and just a little below Earl Thomas. Brandon Browner isn’t in the top tier like the previous players at his position, but he was part of Seattle’s great secondary last year. I would consider the weak spot to be Patrick Chung, but he’s graded extremely well this year also passing Kam Chancellor.

It’s strength on strength. If both sides were healthy, I’d give Seattle a slight advantage. They aren’t, so I’ll call it a draw.

Linebackers

Seattle: 9 – K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin, and Bobby Wagner. Wright and Irvin are rated as the 6th and 11th best outside LB in all of football according to PFF. By the same metric, Wagner is the 5th best inside linebacker in all of football. Consider that there are 32 teams and they typically have two starters in each position. Any of these players would be the best on 80% of the teams.

New England: 9 – Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins aren’t household names, but they were rated the #2 and #3 inside linebackers in the league on PFF, putting them ahead of all of Seattle’s linebackers. You are right to ask about the third, but I think the Patriots will play a 5-2-4 base defense for much of the game. If captain and Pro Bowler, Jerod Mayo didn’t get injured earlier in the season (he’s out for the season), this unit would be a 10.

It’s another draw, but it’s notable that Seattle has three great players here and New England has two. New England has some make-up work to do when we look at the defensive line.

Defensive Line

Seattle: 8.5 – I’m not as familiar with Seattle’s defensive line. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are well-known stars. Bennett in particular stands out as Seattle’s defense’s greatest rated player. Their pass rush will be a key to Seattle being successful. It looks like Seattle rotates a few players who are close to average or even far below average in the case of Tony McDaniel.

Two great players and some fresh legs and I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt of an 8 grade. However, given that a pass rush is critical to stopping New England and it’s the strength of the two great players, I’m bumping it up to 8.5.

New England: 7.5 – I think the Patriots will use Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga, and Alan Branch in this role. On any given play Jones and Ninkovich might be considered linebackers. It’s hard to say. I think they’ll go with Wilfork, Siliga, and Branch as they clog up a lot of space averaging around 325lbs. We’ll get to it later, but stopping Seattle’s running game is going to be a focus for the Patriots. These 3 amigos are their best chance at that.

Wilfork, the captain, is rated the 13th best defensive end in the league according to PFF. I would have called him a NT/DT, but go figure. With all the talk of deflated footballs, it might have been missed that helped a car crash victim after the last game. It’s understandable that the media would focus on an inconsequential (by all accounts) amount of air some footballs over the safety of another human. (Wait, no it’s not.)

Siliga and Branch are closer to average players. They won’t be disruptive in rushing the passer, but they play the run well, which is what New England needs most in this game.

Jones and Ninkovich are both very good players. They will be asked to “set the edge” which means not allow Seattle to run outside and move the ball up field. Jones was injured for 7 games in the middle of season, but has come back strong since then. That might be ideal, as he is fresher than most players. If he played the full season, he would have projected to grade better than Devin McCourty above, which makes him a Pro Bowl-level talent. Ninkovich’s season was closer to average, but he’s typically a small notch below Pro Bowl-level. He is coming off the single best game I’ve seen graded by PFF.

I’d give them a 7 on talent alone, but I’m bumping it up to 7.5 because they are better against the run, which is critical for this game.

Offensive Line

Seattle: 5 – The players with the top 5 amount of snaps all have negative grades according to PFF. Max Unger, #6, missed a lot of time with injury, but he’s the star of the show with great run blocking. The grading all over the offensive line for PFF is filled with red.

New England: 5 – The tackles, Solder and Vollmer are particularly good players. Solder started off badly this season, but he’s righted the ship for the most part. Vollmer might be the best RT in the game. The Patriots interior offensive line is more of question mark. That question mark centers on whether rookie Bryan Stork is going to play or not. If he’s healthy enough to play the Patriots the offensive line is better. If he’s not, the Patriots juggle around few interior position players. That’s so much writing and that I’ll just say it’s probably worth a half point on my 10 point scale. It is worth noting that PFF has Dan Connolly graded so horribly, (really, really bad) it’s a bit of a head-scratcher for the captain of the line.

While I’m giving the Patriots a 5, they can often be more than the sum of their parts. They work together well. At other times, such as the last two times the Patriots were in the Super Bowl, a strong 4-man pass rush can take over the whole game.

I’m going to also factor in Tedy Bruschi’s Offensive Line Index. Unfortunately, it was last updated in early December. It is less than ideal, but still better than not using anything. That’s a decided advantage for Seattle.

What’s interesting is that the Bruschi’s Index indicates that Seattle is the worst in the league in pass protection. Seattle’s game is to run the ball, but if they get forced into a situation where they have to pass, that could be a problem.

At the end of the day, I’m going to call it a draw. I’d say that Unger and Vollmer + Solder balance each other out and no one else seems to be good enough to move the needle.

Running Backs

Seattle: 10 – I thought about giving “Beast Mode” a 9.5, but then I decided that he does everything that Seattle needs and is by almost any account at least a top 3 running back in the league.

New England: 9.5 – Some may say that I’m off my rocker with this one. However, LaGarrette Blount has been even better this year, when he plays. PFF has grades for when he was with the Patriots in the regular season and grades for all his games including playoffs and including games for Pittsburgh. By either measure he scored better per snap than “Beast Mode.” It’s not just from these two small samplings either. He was great with the Patriots last year.

Seattle gets the edge, because “Beast Mode” has done it a lot longer. I’d give him a bigger edge, but Blount has graded even better in as many snaps as over his last two years.

Receivers and Tight Ends

Seattle: 3.5 – It may seem harsh, but only Doug Baldwin receives a positive grade from PFF. Most expect him to be sacrificed to Revis Island. Even TE Luke Willson receives a negative grade.

New England: 8 – After Tom Brady, Gronk is the highest rated offensive player in the game. He’s such a mismatch that teams have to devote more resources to him, which opens up opportunities for others.

I find it inexplicable that Julian Edelman received a negative grade while LaFell earned a positive one. Both were less than 50 yards from being 1,000 yard receivers and each more than a 100 yards than Baldwin, Seattle’s best receiver.

While Shane Vereen is running back, he’s particularly dangerous as a receiver with 52 receptions. That isn’t too far from Doug Baldwin’s 68 receptions.

Quarterbacks

Seattle: 7.5 – Russell Wilson is rated 13th just below Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is odd. He’s also rated above Joe Flacco, who almost knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs, so there’s that. It’s not just PFF rating Wilson in that area, ESPN’s QBR has him rated 12th.

Wilson is dangerous running the ball and passing on the run.

New England: 9.5 – The real “12” in this game is probably the best quarterback to ever play the game. (Okay, I’m a little biased, but every measure has him up there.) Brady is the 4th rated QB according to PFF and 4th in ESPN’s QBR. He should get some MVP votes and he’s the highest rated offensive player in the game.

Defensive Recap

Seattle Defense: 26.5 (of 30)
New England Defense: 25.5 (of 30)

Due to Seattle’s injuries, it’s wash in the secondary. If we pretend that Chandler Jones is linebacker (as he sometimes is) it is a wash there as well. Seattle has a small advantage on the defensive line.

There’s a lot of focus on Seattle’s Legion of Boom with what they did to Denver’s historically good offense last year. It’s well-deserved and I couldn’t respect them more.

However, the Patriots were very good as well. The Seahawks gave up 15.9 points per game and the Patriots gave up 19.6. Clearly that’s not as good, but New England had a more difficult schedule, with 12 of their games coming against the top 16 teams to only 9 of Seattle’s. It feels like New England faced better offenses having played Denver, Indy, and even Sand Deigo when they were clicking. Both teams had to play Green Bay, so it’s a wash. Seattle got to play the 2nd and 3rd string QBs in Arizona and St. Louis… and SF was worse than both of them. To put it in perspective, the Patriots had to play Miami twice who had a similar offense (in terms of scoring) to the Seahawks.

Many analysts say that defense beats offense and use that as a reason for picking Seattle. I think such analysis might be swayed by Seattle’s outstanding performance in last year’s Super Bowl in combination with the Patriots having been one of the best offenses over the last several seasons.

When the defenses are this close to equal, it simply isn’t that simple.

Offensive Recap

Seattle Offense: 26 (of 40)
New England Offense: 32 (of 40)

Seattle’s scoring offense was 10th with 24.6 points per game. New England was 4th with 29.3 points per game… and that would have been higher if they didn’t sit Gronk in a meaningless week 17 game (and Brady for half of it).

Seattle doesn’t try to hide it. They intend to run the ball. Usually it is with “Beast Mode”, but quite often Wilson will do the work. The problem is that their passing game is average at best.

New England’s offense can do almost anything. They can passed almost exclusively to beat the Ravens in the divisional game. They put up huge yards on the ground running against the Colts. I’ve overlooked Special Teams to this point, but the Patriots have won games with that as well… both with blocking and returning kicks.

It’s a big advantage to have the best QB, best offensive line, and best receivers. It more than makes up for the slight edge Seattle has at running back.

Keys to the Game

Seattle on Defense

1. The best way to beat the Patriots is to pressure Tom Brady with a 4-man rush, leaving 7 out in coverage. Brady is great when a team blitzes a 5th man. Unfortunately for the Patriots, Seattle’s Bennett and Avril are good enough to provide that pressure.

2. Perhaps equally important is to stop the Patriots run. The run shouldn’t be decimating like it was against the Colts. Instead, Seattle wants to force the Patriots into being one-dimensional, so that they lose the threat of play-action, which is another area where Brady is magnificent.

3. I’ll throw in the obligatory, “stop Gronk.” However, the Patriots can win if Seattle over-focuses on Gronk leaving other players open. If stopping Gronk means doubling him with Wright and Chancellor, the Patriots may be happy with what it opens up elsewhere.

Seattle on Offense

This is the biggest mismatch of the game. I don’t see how Seattle is going to be effective, though any given Sunday… I’ll take a shot with these three:

1. Beast Mode plays the game of his life. We’ll cover this when discussing New England’s Defense, but Belichick takes away what a team does best. It almost never beats him. He shut down Marshall Faulk in Super Bowl 36 and Lynch is no Faulk. He did that while having to shut down two Hall of Fame quality receivers too. If Beast Mode can beat Belichick, Seattle’s odds of winning increase dramatically.

2. Hit some big plays. Seattle knows the Patriots’ Browner as he used to be a Seahawk. They know he commits a ton of penalties. They may decide to just throw it deep and hope for either a catch or a penalty. Wilson has been known to connect on some of those deep balls in the past.

3. Use Wilson’s legs. The Patriots will try to contain him, but when he’s scrambling around almost anything can happen. While we might not see another helmet catch, if some of those plays work out for Seattle, they’ll put points on the board.

New England on Defense

1. Stop “Beast Mode.” Seattle fans may be thinking, “Good luck.” Belichick will focus on it. I see the big three that I mentioned above clogging the middle and Jones and Ninkovich setting the edge. Patrick Chung is PFF’s 3rd rated safety at stopping the run with Hightower and Collins the 5th and 6th best inside linebackers against the run. To make matters worse for the Beast, Seattle’s wide receivers aren’t talented enough to draw attention away from Belichick focusing on him.

As Football Outsiders points out, the Patriots have the best run defense in the league since their week 10 bye. That Football Outsiders article has incredible analysis and is well worth a read.

If there’s one team that might be best suited to stop “beast mode”, it might be New England.

2. Stop Wilson’s scrambling and big plays. The Patriots have faced a QB like Wilson all year. Belichick has stopped Vick when he was in a Falcons’ uniform, so he’s seen better pure running quarterbacks. The question is how you stop both Wilson and Beast. Fortunately the answer for each of them is devote more people to the line of scrimmage and let your awesome secondary handle Seattle’s receivers.

3. Don’t get beat by “the catch.” The last two Super Bowls were highlighted by nearly impossible catchers. The first the helmet catch by Tyree. The second by the long sideline catching by Manningham. By almost all accounts it is going to be a close game so a play like this could be the difference of whether we are talking about Brady being the best QB of all time or losing three straight Super Bowls. It’s insane, because he wasn’t on the field for either iconic catch. People magnify a few plays in a Super Bowl to overshadow a whole career with thousands of passes.

New England on Offense

This is the match-up that I think everyone wants to see. It’s strength vs. strength. One of the best offense’s vs. the best defense. We saw a little of it a couple of weeks ago with Seattle and Green Bay, but this is a neutral field and not an injured Aaron Rodgers. Also Seattle’s defense was more or less at full health.

1. Test the injuries. Can you get Blount into the second level to test Thomas’ shoulder? Can you run a screen to Edelman to force Sherman to make a tackle with his elbow? Is Kam Chancellor’s knee going to slow him down in stopping Gronk.

2. Use the Camelion. The Patriots morph their offense to whatever the defense’s weakness is. The only problem is that Seattle doesn’t have much unless the key players are more injured than they let on. So how the Patriots change their colors to find something that Seattle doesn’t do well. I’ve read that they aren’t great on short passes, which is something that is a Patriots’ specialty. Perhaps that works for them.

3. Protect Tom Brady against that 4-man rush. Yes, find some way to stop Bennett.

4. Bring the Attack of the Lilliputians. I have to think that Seattle is going to double Gronk with Wright and Chancellor. They leave Sherman on the same side all the time, so the Patriots can almost pick who they are going to sacrifice. My guess is that they go with LaFell there. That leaves 3 small players… IncrEdelman (or Minitron) to work against Seattle’s weaker corner. It leaves Amendola to work against their 4th corner. Vereen is the third option and the Patriots could even option him and go empty backfield.

The problem with this is Seattle’s other great linebackers, but these 3 amigos have a lot of jitterbug in them. Linebackers usually don’t have the agility to keep up.

Prediction

The Patriots are pissed off about the whole DeflateGate thing. When SpyGate happened, they responded with such incredible play that people got mad that they ran up the score. Earlier this year when critics claimed they were a “weak team” after losing big in Kansas City, they responded with an almost perfect game against Cincinnati. They have only lost twice since… an equal battle in Green Bay (the team that should have knocked off Seattle last week) and the last week of the season where they sat their players.

The lesson is that you don’t want to make Belichick and Brady angry. It makes the Patriots at least 38% better than they normally are, which is by far the best team this millennium.

And when all other analysis fails, I find that the nationally recognized ones from Rick Gosselin. Add in the Patriots’ fire under DeflateGate, and I don’t see it ending well for Seattle.

I’ll go with Patriots 24-16.

P.S. I expected to tie in more sources when I started, but it took hours to write this. I seriously doubt you are looking to read even more analysis.

Lazy Man’s 2013 Super Bowl Review

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The Super Bowl and the weekend is over… I’m not going to let it go that easy. It’s always been my stance that with the exception of Independence Day, there isn’t one day that unites America more than the Super Bowl. Even people that don’t like football tune in to see the half-time show and the commercials. The people who decide what’s a national holiday should just get together and make Super Bowl Sunday official… complete with the following Monday off.

Watching this Super Bowl was a little different for me. Hanscom Air Force Base was a big event so we went there. I don’t know if ever been to a party where the people are too generous, but this was such an occasion. Everyone in attendance, probably 125 people, had to have walked away with a raffle prize. We walked away with this specialty brownie pan and a slightly different brand of this giant cupcake pan.

There was so much free food that they urged people to take some home afterward. We’ve got meatballs for a few days. The beer? It was $10 for a 16 ounce cup that gave you all you can drink access to the keg… just go pour your own from the tap. While pouring mine, I relived a few college weekends by closing my eyes and think pretending I was in a dank basement with a radio playing Everclear’s Santa Monica. It was about the same quality beer too. I’m not one to be a beer connoisseur, so the light and refreshing domestic stuff worked for me, especially with everything else going on.

The Super Bowl got things started off right with kids from Sandy Hook Elementary singing with Jennifer Hudson. My wife was quick to remind me that there’s a connection of gun violence between them. As we’ll cover a little later, I’m a big sap for things like this. It’s good for the kids and it looks good for the NFL. While on the topic of looking good, I know that Subway celebrated 15 years of Jared last night, but Hudson has gotten and stayed in shape for a long time now.

The National Anthem started and everyone on the base stood and was silent. I wonder how many places outside of military bases had that happen. I went to a movie on the base a month ago and they played the National Anthem before the movie with the same reaction. It was a great of respect. A lot has been said about Alicia Keys’ rendition being too slow and I have to agree. It seemed like she was purposely trying to draw it out as long as possible. Also, was that an extra line at the end? You are Alicia not Francis Scott.

Let’s move on to the best commercials. As I mentioned before I’m a little bit of a sap. While I can appreciate a funny commercial as much as anyone else, the ones that really speak to me are going to get my attention. With that in mind the best commercial was the Budweiser Clydesdales:

Like most people, I’ve never raised a horse. However, I’m in year four of raising a dog now and we went through a lot of the same things in the video. Last month, we took Jake to a local dog park, only to find that it wasn’t fenced in. We’ve only let him be off a leash in public a couple of times and it always makes us a little nervous. He’ll chase a squirrel across a highway without thinking twice. My wife dropped Jake and me off while she parked the new car and was to come with our baby. Jake played with the other dogs for about 20 minutes and then got bored and started running towards the parking lot… the one place in the acres of forest that presented the most danger.

Of course his four legs are faster than my two, so he easily got by me and no one else seemed to care that this dog was running unattended. Suddenly he picked up speed as he made a dash for the parking lot, stretching the distance between us from 2 football fields to 3. He continued to the parking lot and straight into my wife’s car. She couldn’t find a place in the far parking lot and was circling to find a spot in the near one. It’s not exactly like the commercial, but it felt the same.

It was a tough call for top spot between that commercial and this Jeep, Whole Again, one:

It’s one thing to watch a commercial like that. It’s another to watch it on a military base where it could apply to dozens of the people there.

Is it any surprise that I had Subaru split their charitable donation between the ASPCA and the USO when I bought my car?

Finally this farmer one got to me:

It was long and it was good. I know it’s not what you’d expect from “Lazy Man.” I have great respect for the un-Lazy.

A lot of people thought that the half-time show was really well done. I thought it was okay. It hit my expectations considering that most of it was dancing in front of a video screen. Nothing stood out to impress me like the 88,000 Chinese people drumming (or whatever it was) for the Olympic opening ceremony. I would have settled for some kind of flip, I’ve seen a mid-50’s Steven Tyler do it, so why not Beyonce?

While on the topic of the half-time show, here’s a random statistic that you may find interesting. Patriots beat reporter Mike Reiss noted that of 22 assistant and head coaching positions open this offseason, three new minorities added to the coaching pipeline. With Hudson, Keyes, and Beyonce, the NFL had the same number of minority singers for the Super Bowl. Seems like too little diversity in either.

The power outage certainly brought some excitement to the game. I was stuck wondering why they were keeping the focus on the announcers and the game when they had little to report. If it were me, I would have cut to some commercials. I know the commercial time slots were well planned in advance, but CBS should have taken some contingency commercials for such situations (or even overtime). Lazy Man and Money will start the bidding at $100 for a slot that comes up to unforeseen circumstances. I’m a few companies will outbid me by a few hundred thousand dollars, but that could have been all profit for CBS.

As for the game itself, if you stuck around past the power outage it got really good. However, for the second consecutive time, it ended with the team I had an affiliation with losing. I have a lot of disappointed friends back in San Francisco. The important thing to remember is that 31 teams are going to be less-than-pleased with how the season ends… and the draft is only a couple away.