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Belichick was Right (and Personal Finance Links)

August 1, 2011 by Lazy Man 18 Comments

Do we have any football fans in the house? If you aren’t a fan, just skip down to the links. If you are a fan, hopefully you caught the Patriots-Colts’ “Rivalry of the Decade” game. Whenever these teams get together it’s always comes down to the wire. As a Patriots fan, losing a game with a 17 point fourth lead is pretty harsh. There are a lot of reasons why it happened, but everyone wants to talk about the controversial call by Bill Belichick to go for it on 4th-down in an attempt to run out the clock.

Before I get to that, there were two previous plays that should get attention. They simply are being overshadowed by that call. The Patriots had the ball at the Colts 1or 2 yard line when Lawrence Maroney fumbled and the Colt recovered. That’s the kind of play you look back on in a 1-point loss. The other play was a 36 yard pass interference call – on a very late flag. I thought it was straight up defense with little or no contact. Two ESPN analysts said it was a “dicey” call and Deion Sanders of NFL Network said it was “a questionable call”. The Colts went on to score a touchdown in the next couple of plays. Patriots fans everywhere remember the phantom pass interference that proved to be the difference in the 2006 AFC Championship game that got the Colts into the Super Bowl over the Patriots. The heavily favored Colts ran away with the game.

The play everyone is talking about is the Patriots’ decision to go for it on 4th down from their own 28-yard line. The Patriots didn’t get the necessary two yards (though replays show it was pretty close with the receiver’s foot over the 30 yard line after securing the ball) and the Colts got the ball back with a short field. Deion Sanders later said it was a bad spot by the referee. The Patriots couldn’t challenge the spot because they had used up their timeouts.

The alternative was to punt the ball away. On a SportsCenter.com 58% of the people say there is no excuse for the call, 27% say it was somewhat understandable giving the flow of the game, and 15% say it was right call.

Tedy Bruschi, a former Patriots defensive player who could become the mayor of Boston if he wanted to, said that . Bruschi said that the decision didn’t give the Patriots’ defense the chance to win the game and wrote that Belichick dissed his defense. With all due respect to Bruschi, I don’t believe the defense was a large thought in Belichick’s mind. I think Belichick had a couple thoughts in his head:

  • We have a great QB and offense – The strength of the Patriots is the offense. It still has the key players that made it the highest scoring offense in the history of the NFL in 2007. The defense has a lot of young players drafted in the last 2-3 years on it.
  • They have a great QB and offense – Peyton Manning has already secured himself a spot in the Hall of Fame and some can argue he is the best QB of all time. Punting the ball gives him more than 2 minutes (plenty of time) and four downs on every set (the Colts wouldn’t punt or kick a field goal down by 6). It is always a smart move to keep the ball out of Manning’s hands – even if you have the 1985 Chicago Bears defense.

Another way to look at it is this. Since 2001 (Tom Brady era), the Patriots get a first down on 4th and 2 or less 76.4% of the time. That’s a 76.4% chance that you’ll be able to run out almost all the clock, virtually guaranteeing the win. An average punt typically nets 38 yards of field position… very close to the 36 yards that can be erased on a dicey pass interference call. Advanced NFL Stats broke down the probabilities of going for it on 4th down vs. punting and found that an average team had a 9% better chance at winning (79% vs. 70%) if they go for it. However, if you plug in the Patriots’ 76.4% on 4th and 2 or less, it goes up to 95% win probability in the Patriots favor. Of course that 76.4% may be artificially high since he it likely includes a lot of easier to convert 4th an inches.

In the end, analysts seem to be starting to realize that Belichick made the right decision to go for the win. The difficulty that some people are having is that it so unconventional to go for it on fourth down on your own side of the field with a lead. This is a case where the conventional wisdom is simply wrong.

Money Writers:

  • Learn how to manage money at Brip Blap.
  • Digerati Life warns not all cheap houses are true bargain homes
  • Frugal Dad offers ten things to consider when relocating to end unemployment.
  • Generation X Finance lists 5 freelance writing websites that pay frequently.
  • Million Dollar Journey on losing my wallet!
  • Money Smart Life shares year end tax tips 2009 .
  • My Dollar Plan helps readers understand health savings accounts.
  • The Sun’s Financial Diary posts the argument against frugality.

Top Personal Finance Posts:

  • Free Money Finance asks who earns more in your marriage?
  • The Smarter Wallet says kids eat free: restaurants offer great family deals!
  • Some suggestions for improving a credit score by Rich Credit Debt Loan.
  • All Financial Matters explores what will giving each baby $500 accomplish.
  • The anti-stuff holiday gift guide also known as the experience gift guide by Get Rich Slowly.
  • Debt Goal gives 6 reasons to avoid retail store credit cards.
  • Darwin Finance shows readers how to snag a free credit score from myFICO.
  • Bill Eater shares frugal feast – saving money on Thanksgiving day.
  • Moolanomy explains how the first time home buyer credit can create economic growth.
  • Wise Bread writes stock a natural food pantry for less.
  • PT Money reviews Upromise: a little extra savings for college.
  • Consumer Commentary gives 4 reasons why you should read your bill every month.
  • Money Ning posts how to save money on diapers and baby supplies.

Filed Under: Links Tagged With: bill belichick, Fourth down, patriots

NFL Draft (And Some Personal Finance Links)

April 26, 2009 by Lazy Man 6 Comments

This was a big weekend in Boston sports. With the Red Sox – Yankees playing and Celtics and Bruins seasons still going on… all the teams had some logs in the fire. Oh, I forgot to mention the Patriots. They entered the draft with 11 picks. They proceed to wheel and deal. They traded down in some cases and up in other cases. In the end, it seemed like Bill Belichick got great value for every pick. A couple of times he traded a third round pick for a 2nd round pick next year. In other cases he traded the #23 pick (which requires a little dough to sign) back to #41 (which requires quite a bit less) and picked the same player that everyone predicted they’d take at #23. In that process they added a few more picks.

All in all, after adding four 2nd round picks and setting themselves up for 3 more 2nd round picks next year, they are looking pretty good to play at a high level for years. Then again, I think fans of a lot of teams are pretty happy, it will be fun to watch how things play out over the years.

Enough sports-talk for now, let’s get to some personal finance links…

Money Writers:

  • Brip Blap discusses the real meaning of risk.
  • Frugal Dad declares I have had enough!
  • Generation X Finance writes a Supreme Court case highlights the importance of keeping your beneficiaries up to date.
  • Million Dollar Journey asks do you plan to leave anything behind?
  • Learn how to make cheap phone calls and lower your phone bill written by Digerati Life.
  • Take a look into IRA vs Roth IRA by Money Smart Life.
  • My Dollar Plan posts 16 second quarter financial tips.
  • The Sun’s Financial Diary says life insurance may make better budget sense than you think.

More Finance Posts:

  • Mighty Bargain Hunters shares with readers some personal finance aggregators worth a look.
  • Free Money Finance blogs another example of getting rich on a low salary.
  • Bargaineering shares how students use credit cards.

Filed Under: Links Tagged With: bill belichick, boston sports, bruins, Celtics, patriots, red sox yankees

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