I’ve been really surprised that the Dow Jones industrial average continues to drop. The last time it dropped to 8,200 I thought it would be the last chance at those prices. As I write this, the mark is at 7,500 and some indications seem to say that it could go even lower. Despite that, we’ve been buying some index funds with our Zecco account. Specifically we’ve been picking up Vanguard Total Index (VTI) and Vanguard All-World Ex-US (VEU).
However, one of my worst investments seems to have been PowerShares DB Oil Fund (DBO) which generally moves with oil prices. If you’ve been following gas prices you’ve seen the drop they’ve taken lately. What did I see in DBO that interested me? I remember that a barrel of oil was around $150 this summer towards it’s peak. Recently with it $60-65 it seemed like a tremendous bargain. Consider this 6 month chart of DBO:
Here is where I made my mistake. I didn’t look at the big picture. If I had, I might have remembered that $150 was due to speculation. I might have looked at this 20-month chart:
The chart might be a little small (you can play with a full version here), but if you Rip Van Winkle’d 2008, the price of DBO might seem in line with 2007.
The price of oil just broke below $50 and some are saying that it get as low as $30. If it gets below $40, I may have to dollar cost average and pick up some more of DBO. I can’t help but feel that at some point in the next 3 or 4 years we’ll see $100 oil again.
What are your thoughts?