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Bitcoins: The Future of Money or End of the World?

June 1, 2011 by Lazy Man 21 Comments

… Or it neither or both?

A couple of weeks back my friend James Williams had an interesting Tweet.
James is the kind of person you follow if you are interested in the technology information that really matters. If technology information to you centers around the release of the white iPhone, you might as well just continue watching your local news. James Tweet was:

“Reading: Bitcoin P2P Currency: The Most Dangerous Project We’ve Ever Seen /me lots of FUD in this post”

It should be painfully obvious where I got the sensationalism in this post. I’ll give the author credit, it certainly got my attention. If you are like me, you haven’t heard of Bitcoins. So here is a little introduction:

If you don’t have video handy, you can think of Bitcoins as digital currency, a little like Paypal. People can use it to barter goods and services, just like money. So what makes it different than money? The money moves directly from person to person, so there are transfer fees are extremely small (what I like to call the Paypal tax). Bitcoins aren’t specific a particular country, so you don’t have to worry about converting them to pounds or lira. The flow of Bitcoins can’t be tracked like that money is when you move it in and out of banks. Finally, governments can’t freeze Bitcoin account. Some may say this is simply cash. In some ways it is similar, but cash is limited to a physical exchange.

From a technology point of view, I think Bitcoins have incredible potential. They solve a number of problems that annoy people when dealing with money. Here’s one example from my own life. Since I make much of my money on the Internet, much of my income comes in via Paypal which takes a percentage every time I receive a payment. I’d much rather cut out the Paypal Tax and moving to a Bitcoin currency would allow me to do that.

There-in lies some of the difficulty with Bitcoins. It’s got the classic chicken-and-the-egg problem. No one wants to be the first to accept Bitcoins, because they want to be able to spend them elsewhere.

The other problem with Bitcoins… the End of the World problem… is taxing them. Bitcoins then move in that shady territory of tipping waitstaff in cash… it’s a bit on the honor system.

Here’s the other thing with Bitcoins. They are limited in number. What this means is that if people want them more, the value of them are going to go up. I found one article that said the value has already gone up more than 1000-fold in the past 14 months. Think about that for a minute. If you bought $1000 in Bitcoins 14 months ago, you’d be able to convert your money back to cash and have almost a million dollars. (Don’t hold me to this, I’m putting a lot of trust in that article.) Before you move all your money in Bitcoins like the guy in that article, I suggest you look into the term Economic Bubble.

Lastly, there’s a danger in holding Bitcoins. If your hard drive gets erased, so do your coins (though I think you can back them up). There’s the aforementioned economic bubble. There’s also the potential for companies that convert Bitcoins back to real world currency to be shutdown. Governments aren’t going to like this currency that they can’t control or regulate. They aren’t going to like those that aid convert Bitcoin currency to their own monetary system. You could be stuck with something very illiquid that no one wants.

Bitcoins open up a Pandora’s Box of questions and problems. I been trying to wrap my head around them for a couple of weeks now and I still can’t tell you whether they are the future of money, the end of the world, neither, or both.

What are your thoughts?

Filed Under: Economy, News Tagged With: Bitcoins

Silicon Valley Start-up News (Volume 1)

April 12, 2011 by Lazy Man 3 Comments

I thought I’d try something out something a little new this week. While walking my dog last week, I thought about how lucky I was to be in Silicon Valley with piles of personal finance companies all around me. It was barely 4 years ago when I went to preview Mint’s new personal finance software. You look at them now and everyone wants to be like them. That will happen when Intuit acquires you.

I happen to know a lot of the people building the personal finance tools personally. It’s not unusual for me to have lunch with their marketing person or team. With this in mind, I thought I’d reach out to a few companies and ask if they have anything interesting going on for a round-up. My view here is that this could be a win-win-win. It’s a win for them because it’s free marketing. It’s a win for me because these posts are easy to write. If I do my job, it will be a win for you, the readers, because what they’ve got cooking is going to be interesting to you.

It’s that last point that becomes a bit of a sticking point. There are some companies that news that’s important to them such as hiring a new CEO, but that’s not going to help you with your money. I will include some of that company news, but I hope to at least include one or two nuggets that will impact you. As a final note, though these are all Silicon Valley companies, in the future I expect it to include start-ups from all over the country. Also one of these companies claimed it wasn’t a start-up. They may be correct based on some technical definition. My response was that I consider Facebook and Twitter start-ups. Roughly I’d say to shed the “start-up” moniker a company has to have gotten bought, gone public, or been around for 10+ years. (Maybe that’s something to debate in the comments).

Here are the companies that made the inaugural round-up:

  • Credit Sesame – Credit Sesame is the only debt management tool that I recommend and it’s also a great place to get a free credit score. As for their news, they were most excited about raising over 6M in Series B Funding. What that means to you is that they are likely to be around for awhile. They are also excited about powering Mint’s home loan feature. Looking for something that you can use, why not enter their sweepstakes to win $1,000. To learn more about Credit Sesame read my Credit Sesame Review.
  • Lending Club – Lending Club is a peer-to-peer lending company. The news this week is that those living in Texas can now invest in their secondary market. That’s hardly exciting to most of you right? Their big news is that they increased their maximum loan to $35,000 which opens up more small business and home improvement loan possbilities for borrowers. They’ve also issued more than a quarter billion dollars in loans. I have written about Lending Club more than a few times, but here’s the closest thing to a recent Lending Club review.
  • Credit Karma – Credit Karma is one of the best places to learn how to improve your credit and get a free credit score. They are excited about teaming up with Lending Club to suggest appropriate personal loans to creditworthy borrowers. While it’s not news, I think it’s worth mentioning that Credit Karma has a very active blog, that is one of the best out there. Finally, in news that may only be of interesting to me, Credit Karma is hiring. If they are not careful, they might find a Lazy Man resume in their inbox.
  • Prosper – They are a peer-to-peer lending company like Lending Club. A few years back, I would have said that Lending Club was like Prosper as Prosper was first. Unfortuantely Prosper was probably too early to the game and ran into some difficulties in blazing the trail in the industry. I think they are back now. This weekend they had a short-lived 3.25% cash back bonus for lenders when they lent money to specific featured listings. The opportunity was only for a couple of days over the weekend. However, I am assured that there will be similar future promotions. These kind of cash back bonuses can add up if lending to good borrowers. It’s something to keep an eye on. In other Prosper news, they have streamlined the borrowing process so that borrowers can get a rate by answering just a few questions.

You may have noticed that I mentioned a few companies that offer free credit scores. You can find a round-up of those and others on my article of how to get a free credit score.

I always love feedback in the comments. However, since I’m trying something new, I’d especially appreciate it if you’d give me your thoughts.

Filed Under: News, Start-up

The Looming Government Shutdown May Hit the Lazy Man Household

April 8, 2011 by Lazy Man 11 Comments

I had been delaying this post ask long as possible in hopes that the impending government shutdown wouldn’t happen. Assuming you haven’t been living in a bunker somewhere, you’ve probably heard about it. To dumb the down significantly, a bunch of politicians can’t agree on the budget. Without a budget in place, the parts of government is essentially going to shutdown to avoid spending money. This means that many employees will be furloughed, essentially a forced stoppage of work without pay. This happens tonight if a deal can’t be struck.

If the government shutdown occurs not all employees will be furloughed. Some government workers have critical jobs to the safety of the country and there is a plan to keep them working and paid. The Army and Navy are two examples of employees who will continue to work and get paid. People working a desk job at the FDA though, well, they are going to be furloughed. This puts my wife (and us) in an interesting position. She does have a desk job, so her position is one that would be furloughed. However, she’s an officer in the military and the organization of officers correctly points out that the official guidelines on record require that they be exempt from furloughs.

When I read about this yesterday, I got a tiny bit excited. I thought that this could mean that the job is furloughed, but due to the technicality, my wife would still have to be paid. Of course this is completely counter-productive to the whole idea of the furloughing in the first place. However, we are talking the government here, so I wouldn’t put it past them. Unfortunately, my hopes were dashed last night when we received notification on how a government shutdown may effect us. It didn’t give much explanation and felt like a Mom’s response of “Because I said so.” The notification declared that employees in my wife’s situation would be divided into three groups:

  • Excepted from furlough with pay – Employees will report to work as usual and get paid for it.
  • Non-excepted from furlough without pay – Employees will not report to work and will not get paid.
  • Excepted from furlough WITHOUT PAY – Employees are expected to report to work as usual and NOT get paid for it.

So much for my dream of my wife not working and getting paid for it. The first two groups aren’t very interesting as that’s what is going on with the rest of the government workers from my understanding. The third group, well, I have a problem with it. I could see if these were people who had a part in the budget debate – this may force them to come to resolution quickly. However, a bunch of politicians failing to put together a budget shouldn’t force people to work without pay. I would expect people falling into that group to lawyer-up quickly. I’m not an expert in labor law, but I’m going to go out on a limb and put forth the idea that forcing people to work without pay is wrong. I almost want to see a government shutdown so that this can get exposed.

For those employees who fall in the later two groups of not getting paid, I feel for them. I can only hope that they have a good emergency fund saved up and that they know how to save money. In the Lazy Man household, we have a strong emergency fund that could last us 2-3 years if we didn’t earn another dime. We didn’t consciously put aside that much for an emergency fund, we just hadn’t been sure to what to invest it in. The other thing is that my blogging income can completely maybe sort of support us. Over a year, it would probably come to within a couple of thousand dollars of our necessary expenses.

As you might be able to tell, there’s not much worry here. In all likelihood the shutdown won’t last more than a week or two anyway. If a deal is reached before the shutdown, this all becomes and exercise in hypotheticals. Still it serves as an important reminder of the value of a sound financial foundation.

Update: There’s now a Furlough FAQ available. From Section D1, it sounds like excepted employees will be paid. Interestingly according to section F2, previously approved leave (vacation, etc.) is revoked and the person is considered AWOL if they don’t show up for work. That doesn’t quite seem right to me.

Filed Under: Economy, News Tagged With: furlough, government, military

Geriatric Monolith Getting Money, Giving Misery

December 3, 2010 by Lazy Man 12 Comments

The following is a guest post by Greg McFarlane. He is an advertising copywriter who lives in Las Vegas and Lahaina. Greg runs ControlYourCash.com and recently wrote Control Your Cash: Making Money Make Sense, a financial primer for people in their 20s and 30s who know nothing about money. You can reach him at greg@ControlYourCash.com. Finally, please note the opinions of Mr. McFarlane do not necessarily represent those of Lazy Man and Money

Read into this post what you want, but it’s not intended as political commentary.

Last week, the New York Stock Exchange relisted General Motors’ stock at $33. GM had spent much of the past year drawing billions from one taxpayer-funded account to pay its obligations to another. The automaker is celebrating its new viability by spending yet more money taking out ads thanking the American people for our “generosity”, as if we had a choice.

Earlier this year the president spoke to autoworkers in Detroit, defending his and his congressional cohorts’ decision to confiscate an average of $283 per American and award it to the managers of General Motors, Chrysler, and the United Auto Workers to distribute as they saw fit.

The president didn’t just impoverish critics of the auto bailout, he chided them ““ adding insult to inconvenience. GM and Chrysler sales rose since the bailout: of course they did, those companies can name their own taxpayer-subsidized prices. The president argues that the relative “success” of GM and Chrysler proves that those of us who criticized the bailout weren’t just wrong, but unpatriotic. As he phrased it, “Don’t bet against the American worker. Don’t bet against the American people.”

Speaking up in favor of the 99+% of American people who aren’t autoworkers is now betting against the American people. In 2010, the intercontinental, universal language is not English so much as it is hyperbole. If the stock market retains 95% of its value on a given today, and is all but certain to regain much of the losses the following day, it indicates a “crash”. The Gulf of Mexico is “destroyed” even though it suffered the aquatic equivalent of a fingernail cut too short. A Congress with large majorities in each house, and a president of the same party is in a “lame-duck” session. A bunch of football players from across the nation happen to get drafted by, traded to, or signed as free agents by the one NFL team that plays in a sub-littoral zone, and those players win sufficient games to “save“ that city and turn it into a magical Utopia free of crime and graft.

And so to the auto bailout, which has “saved a million jobs.” If you’re skeptical, which presumably means you’re betting against the American people, you want to see those jobs quantified.

Unedited, from an Agence France-Presse story:

“In the year before the bankruptcies, these companies lost almost 340,000 jobs,” said Ron Bloom, a senior advisor to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“In the year since then, 55,000 jobs have been added into these companies; if we hadn’t stepped in when we did, most observers believe at least a million jobs would have been lost.”

Bloom appeared to be referring not just to Chrysler and GM, but to the large web of suppliers which manufacture components for the plants, which would also likely have gone under if the big auto giants had collapsed.

That quote is provably nonsense. Considering it was uttered by an economic advisor, it shows a powerful misunderstanding, intentional or otherwise, of fundamentals.

Let’s say the man in the White House ““ whether the incumbent or his predecessor ““ had done the humane thing, preserved sacred taxpayer money, and stood by as General Motors and Chrysler went the way of Packard, American Motors, Studebaker, and Pierce-Arrow. What would have happened?

Suppliers disappearing (for any reason other than reduced demand) doesn’t have the slightest effect on demand. Last year, about 10 million Americans bought new cars. Had GM’s total unit sales gone from 2 million to 0, viable car manufacturers would have picked up the slack: specifically, the efficient market players who didn’t sign masochistic union contracts and had enough economies of scale to make things work.

One of the most dangerous and foolish assumptions you can make is that jobs, or any other component of an economy, are static. Sure, GM and Chrysler folding would have meant a few thousand people would have been temporarily displaced. But their skills and experience would still have had tremendous value for someone, somewhere; maybe the Honda plant in Marysville, Ohio, or the Toyota plant in Princeton, Indiana. The auto bailout didn’t save one job ““ it merely preserved some at the expense of other, more dynamic ones with greater potential for growth. For every Band-Aid placed on GM’s debilitated carcass, its competitors forwent expansion that we’ll never see.

Keeping decrepit automakers alive doesn’t do a thing for the ancillary companies who are one step removed from the bailout, either. Were Chrysler to go under, Interstate would still need to sate America’s demand for batteries. Why is it inherently bad that those batteries be installed in more Fords and fewer Chevys?

How viable is a job when taxpayers have to subsidize it, anyway? Autoworkers aren’t soldiers, providing a service that requires a national monopoly and doesn’t cotton to multiple market players. General Motors proved itself incapable of selling cars at sufficient price and quantity to satisfy shareholders, customers and employees. Only under the fallacy of composition does it stand to reason that no one else can, either.

What does this have to do with you? Everything. When you patronize a business that sells its wares less efficiently than someone else does ““ which usually means for a higher price ““ not only are you not doing yourself a favor, you’re not helping out the economy at large, either. That applies to your own position as a salesperson in the labor market, when you sell yourself to the highest or most promising bidder. When you work merely to preserve your job, acting defensively, you’re not growing. You’re not making yourself adaptable, and you’re setting yourself up for failure should your employer ever go under. Working 45 years leading to a gold watch was nonsensical then, and nonexistent now.

If you enjoyed this post I encourage you to buy Control Your Cash here (physical) or here (Kindle).

Filed Under: Economy Tagged With: auto, politics, tax payers

What is Quantitative Easing?

November 22, 2010 by Lazy Man 2 Comments

If you are a regular reader, you’ll know that I rarely go into macroeconomics. While I understand it is important and it does impact me, my voice in the national economy is quite small. Instead, I focus on personal finance and the things that I can control. However, I have a friend with an advanced degree who deeply involved in macroeconomics. He’s like E.F. Hutton to me… when he talks, I listen.

This time when he spoke, he sent an email to a YouTube video about Quantitative Easing. I found it hilarious. Before you view it I want to make a few points:

  • There is very minor use of a couple of profanities. I’ve heard a lot worse on Rescue Me or Nip Tuck, but I thought I’d give a heads up for those with sensitive ears.
  • My friend pointed out that while there are some truths in the video, it is carefully spun to show only one side of the story. You could watch similar videos of iPhone4 vs HTC Evo and HTC EVO vs iPhone4 (both equally hilarious) and come away with opposing views. I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to put out a cartoon on YouTube, so let’s look this as one side of the HTC Evo vs. the iPhone 4 debate.
  • The video doesn’t represent my opinion or even the opinion of my friend. It’s Friday and I thought a little light comedy would be the perfect start to the weekend.

If you want to learn a little more about the making of the video… here’s an interview with the creator:

Oh and if you really want to learn more on quantitative easing, there’s a Wikipedia article for that.

Filed Under: Economy Tagged With: Quantitative Easing

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