Lazy Man and Money

Is Now the Time to Start Selling Stocks?

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That’s a title, I’ve been typing for at least the last 6 years. It’s usually only once a year and my answer has always been that it’s probably time to diversify with international stocks and bonds, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and other investments.

Let’s look at a chart to understand why my annual Chicken Little impression:

Shiller PE Ratio

For those who don’t know, the Shiller P/E is a measure of how expensive the S&P 500 is. The S&P 500 is a good proxy for how the overall US markets are doing. It is calculated by doing the following:

Add up the annual earnings of the S&P 500 companies over the past 10 years. Adjust those past earnings for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Average the adjusted values for earnings over 10 years. The Shiller PE is the current price of the S&P 500 index divided by those earnings over 10 years.

In short, the Shiller P/E gives you a great idea of where the market is valued in a historic context.

When I looked at the chart over the last six years, I noticed that any time the Shiller P/E got above 25, things didn’t go well. I’ve also noticed that 25 seems to have been at least the “new normal” since around the 2000 market crash. That crash was the only time that the P/E went consistently above 30. In fact, COVID brought the number back down to 25, which for some reason is only available on the table information.

In any case, you can see where the valuation is now in the chart above. It’s higher than before any crash. Could it get up to 50 and stay there? Perhaps. Could earnings catch up and bring it down that way. Of course. If the “new normal” is a baseline of 25, is >39 still too high? I think it is and it leads me once again to warn that a crash may be coming soon.

I got lucky last January and moved more money than usual to bonds before COVID hit. When it did and the stock market got hit, I sold those bonds, which hadn’t dropped much, to buy back into the stock market. It worked out well.

As the market continues to go up and up, I’m starting to get more and more nervous. I’m usually a very aggressive investor, but now I hold more bonds and cash than I ever had. I noticed that emerging markets didn’t have this same kind of run, so I’m investing there as long as valuations make sense. It’s harder to find Shiller P/Es of other countries, but here’s a source (Shiller P/E and CAPE are the same thing).

How To Diversify Now?

In the beginning, I mentioned that it could be time to diversify into international stocks, bonds, and REITs. I think those are core places to diversify. You may also consider the following: gold, cash, cryptocurrencies, and buying other businesses.

I haven’t invested in gold yet. I did invest in another business a few years ago, which has gone very well. I have some REITs, but I may buy more. I have also bought crypto, but I’m unsure about buying more at historically high levels. That leaves me holding more cash and bonds than I would ordinarily hold. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not a lot of cash and it is probably healthy to be more diversified in bonds.

What do you think? Am I being Chicken Little saying that the sky is falling once again? Or is it perhaps wise to acknowledge that it’s been a tremendous 11-year run and all good things will have to end at some point? Let me know in the comments.

The Sublime Investing Approach

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[I’ve been extremely busy with dog sitting and extended tax deadlines this week, so Sublime Investing is filling in with some additional content for me. This is a bit of a sales pitch… but with a free option that you might find useful. I haven’t evaluated their service, so don’t view this as an endorsement. For transparency sake, I don’t make any money if you decide to sign up or not.]

Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication

We created Sublime Trading, a community mentoring professionals and business owners to build investment portfolios around their busy lifestyles without compromising on time and profit, as a byproduct of our own success in the financial markets.

Our long-term strategies have returned over 410% since January 2017 and in excess of 30% per annum over the last 10 years. These are the strategies we share with our Phoenix members, the name we have given to our premium community.

My co-founders, Kola Gbadamasi and Jonathan Morgan, and I came together in 2018 with our combined 35+ years of investing and tech experience to form Sublime Trading. We have since had 100s of professionals come through our doors, playing an integral role in helping them work towards reaching their desired wealth target before retirement by learning and implementing our long-term philosophy.

What we learned is that the fog and mysticism this industry is shrouded in dissipates and the route to success becomes clearer when we have a simple system to follow. We have done all the hard work and so our members can get to their end goal, confidently investing to make consistent returns to reach their desired wealth target before retirement as seamlessly as possible. We are helping our members reignite lost dreams which instead become realistic goals in achievable deadlines.

The Investor Journey

Here is what is interesting. The investor journey is highly predictable, and when the problems are predictable, the solutions are predictable as well.

Let’s start with the unsophisticated investor. Typically no education or process. Gambler. Regularly faced with blown accounts. Regularly buys into get-rich-quick schemes. Left with nothing more than broken dreams. Lacks accountability and often blames others.

Next up is the traditional investor. Smart, plays the long game, limited in their knowledge. Use methods that work but are slow, time-consuming, and not up-to-date. Never in complete control of their money. Forced to sit through stressful bear markets such as in 2000 and 2008, meaning years of no growth waiting for a recovery. A basic understanding and use of compound growth.

Finally, the Phoenix investor, the term we have created for our members who use proven old-school techniques, combined with cutting-edge tech and modern-day investment vehicles. Creates a portfolio that compounds significantly. Moves effortlessly between the natural cycles of the market. Complete control over their money. Takes compound growth to a whole new level.

Investors Fall Into 2 Groups

The only barometer of success is profit. Our experience tells us that people generally fall into 2 groups:

  1. The unsophisticated inventor that struggles for consistency and focus.
  2. The sophisticated investor that consistently compounds their profit. This group can be broken down further into the traditional investor and the Phoenix investor explained above.

Group A is characterized by the following 3 problems they commonly face:

  • Problem 1 – A Lack of financial literacy

They lack clarity in the specific long-term processes needed whilst correctly leveraging modern-day investment opportunities available for us as busy everyday people to build wealth between now and retirement.

  • Problem 2 – A challenge to build trust

This is primarily based on buying from unqualified and questionable educators with no REAL results and giving into get-rich-quick schemes. People must slow down, learn to be accountable for their choices and adopt proven long-term wealth creation strategies.

  • Problem 3 – A financial shortfall at retirement

A simple exercise people often fail to do is calculate what ROI their investments need to grow by annually to reach their desired lump sum by retirement. Thus, current savings and investments are not growing at a rate that will see them hit their desired wealth target by or before retirement due to problem 1, a lack of financial literacy.

The Consequence

It is a serious one. A high percentage of the population will not have enough to live on at retirement with no means to getting on track! Many will fall short of their individual wealth retirement goals. We believe many have the right intentions but do not know where to start or get easily derailed and end up down the rabbit hole of get-rich-quick schemes.

For example, official broker figures confirm that up to 95% of their client go on to blow their accounts, losing significant sums in the process. A sad reality that has a far-reaching impact not just on the individual but on society as a whole. It does not have to be like this. The good news is that with the right choices going forward, you can easily and quickly see a change in results.

The Sublime Trading Solution

We have discovered that the smoothest way to the financial control of one’s investments is the perfect blend of learning proven old-school investment techniques which utilise cutting-edge tech and broker solutions. We call this The Phoenix Methodology. The confusion and clutter is replaced with 3 extremely desirable payoffs!

  1. Rise up – Step above the crowd and elevate to the next level.

No more poor choices. Accountability starts here. In a murky education space, you will do right by yourself and your loved ones by turning your back on quack educators peddling get rich-quick-schemes. Instead, you will adopt the proven long-term principles of sound investing, allowing you to live a fulfilling life whilst simultaneously growing your hard-earned money.

  1. Invest savvy – Take the driver’s seat and be the boss of your own portfolio.

Complete control over your money resulting in the life-changing benefits of the power of compound growth. With control comes a clear plan of action. With a clear plan of action comes peace of mind on reaching, even exceeding, your desired wealth target by retirement.

  1. Break the financial illiteracy loop – Be the catalyst that leaves a legacy for generations to come.

‘Generational wealth’ and ‘financial literacy’ become more than buzzwords. You will adopt and execute proven investment principles that are right for us as everyday people. This knowledge is now part of your heritage that will be passed on from generation to generation, breaking the endless loop of financial illiteracy. This is your legacy!

The Phoenix Methodology

We understand that the savvy are led by a hunger for expert knowledge. For investors who rise up, invest smart, and break the loop, we have developed a structured mentoring programme that simultaneously streamlines learning and implementation, shortening the route to creating a portfolio that performs consistently well.

The methodology is based on the 5 Cs:

  • Clarity – Understand the exact processes. Everything else is noise.
  • Control – Have the discipline to see through a proven strategy.
  • Consistency – Have a POA. Keep it simple. Never deviate.
  • Composure – With knowledge comes confidence, resilience and peace of mind.
  • Compound – Recycle profits, add more money and repeat for significant long-term exponential growth.

We know from our own experiences that the journey from looking for credible mentors to starting to invest is tough and which the primary reason we created Sublime Trading. Investing becomes straightforward when you receive the right guidance.

We have structured Sublime Trading and the Phoenix methodology to meet your needs.

  • We train you on our proven process – Investment strategies that fit seamlessly around your lifestyle.

We have developed a tried and tested formula that gets members taking immediate advantage of the best investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer.

  • We guide you daily – Online training, weekly webinars and in-person training days.

A combination of online and offline support to speed up the learning and to get you implementing our proven strategies seamlessly and with confidence.

  • Our digital tools simplify the process – Bespoke charting analysis and execution tools.

Complete training and transparency on specialised, simple-to-learn ‘tools of the trade’ to quickly and clearly establish the very best assets for the portfolio.

  • We make sure you stay on track – Focus and accountability.

Camaraderie, collaboration and support from fellow professionals and business owners through our private like-minded community, spearheaded by The Sublime Trading team.

  • We find the assets for you – Scanned watchlist preparation

We record bi-weekly short videos showcasing the very best assets from the stock, commodity and currency markets for you to watch and keep an eye on, saving you £1000s in scanner subscription costs and hours looking for these opportunities yourself.

  • Just follow our investing signals – Daily portfolio guidance

We share the final assets that make it into our portfolio and their management from entry to exit, removing the guesswork and helping you create a portfolio that performs and compounds from the get-go.

Accelerate The Journey

Investing success has little to do with your background. I have a background in photography and TEFL, Kola in media and property and Jonathan is a software engineer. We have never worked in the city or for an institution. We do not have degrees related to finance or economics. None of that matters.

What counts is being in the right position financially to start (NEWS FLASH: yes you need a decent size starting pot to invest!), learning the specific investment techniques that are right for us as busy everyday people (financial literacy!) and resilience in abundance to see this through to the very end.

Good investing is simple but not easy. The best techniques are simple to learn but growing wealth requires patience which is why so many fall short. The internet promised riches yesterday and people repeatedly fall for the gimmicks. Instead, do this properly, believe in yourself that you can do this, embrace compound growth and you will be handsomely rewarded with a generational changing portfolio.

So regardless of your background, we have combined the elements above to create a supportive yet challenging, high-performance environment for investors that accelerates their journey to rising up, investing savvy and ultimately breaking the financial illiteracy loop.

Our Mission

I came together with Kola and Jonathan to form Sublime Trading with a single mission in mind: To lead the revolution in simplifying good financial literacy, developing smart investors that use a repeatable system to reach their desired wealth target before retirement.

Our Vision

We have grand plans. We must think big else what is the point. And as a collective, we are powerful, people tend to forget that, as we live in a world where our media channels actively promote division and separation.

Our vision for Sublime Trading is to help our members create long-term financial wealth, which they can leave as their legacies made through a transfer of knowledge, wealth and power away from the institutions into the hands of the savvy everyday person.

How The Training Works

We believe that it is the role of every budding investor to lead the way in breaking the mould of generational financial illiteracy replacing it with a new cycle of expert knowledge and generational wealth. The training is structured for you to achieve that.

Start Your Journey With Us – Complete The Scorecard

If you are reading this, planning your financial future is no doubt a priority. To help you along your journey to wealth success, we have created this scorecard. We have designed it to score you in the key areas of savings, investing, lifestyle and mindset.

This scorecard is made up of 30 mostly yes/no questions and will take you less than 5 minutes to complete. The scorecard will then produce a detailed report telling you exactly where you are on your journey and the change you will need to consider adopting to hit your wealth retirement goals.

On completion, we also have an excellent FREE gift, the Launchpad Investor Starter Kit, priced at $409. The kit includes a ton of goodies including a video syllabus that breaks down financial literacy for us as everyday people, a wealth calculator that will work out the ROI you need to be achieving annually to hit your wealth goals, bespoke charting tools, a PDF that breaks down our methodology in detail and so much more.

This is the perfect kit to start taking your investing to the next level and to understand the opportunities the modern-day investment space has to offer. Awareness is key.

The question then remains, how will you break the financial illiteracy loop and make a positive impact in the world?

Zaheer Anwari – Co-founder of Sublime Trading

Fixing My Biggest Money Mistake

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Last week, I wrote about My Biggest Money Mistake. It was not a money mistake that most people can identify with. I over-optimized and put too much into retirement accounts. It’s great if we are looking to maximize our net worth. It’s very poor if the plan is to use the money to pay expenses now – 15 years before traditional retirement age. As I mentioned in my previous article, this is a “good problem” to have. We’ve been extremely lucky that most of our personal finance plans have worked out well.

Overall, around 90% of our money is in real estate equity or a retirement account. Half of the real estate equity is our primary residence. The other half is in rental properties. We’re a few years away from owning our primary residence which will largely eliminate our biggest expense. The mortgages on the rental properties will be paid off in a few years as well, giving us a supplemental income. The rental property equity simply looks like a big number on paper a screen.

Getting the money out of the rental properties is straightforward. We could sell one to pay off the other two and get a smaller income stream now. We could sell off all three and invest the money in an index fund. If we did that, we may get around $10,000 a year in dividends. However, if we stay the course, I estimate we’ll get $30,000 a year in rents after all expenses once the mortgages are paid off. I don’t like the idea of selling the properties at this time.

Getting the money out of the retirement accounts early is a little more complicated. Actually, it can be easy if you are okay with paying penalties. However, the whole reason why I put the money in a retirement account was to maximize the growth and the amount available after taxes.

When we look at retirement accounts there are two basic types – those that are invested with pre-tax money and those that are invested with after-tax money. Pre-tax retirement accounts include 401ks, traditional IRAs, and government TSP plans. After-tax retirement accounts include things like Roth IRAs, Roth 401ks, and Roth TSP plans. With the after-tax Roth accounts, you’ve already paid tax, so you don’t need to pay tax again. For this reason, the only thing we need to think about with Roth IRAs is being old enough (age 59.5) that we don’t get penalized.

However, with the pre-tax retirement accounts, we have to pay regular income taxes on all the money we take out. Right now, that actually isn’t too bad. If we earn up to $80,250, we’ll pay only about 12% of taxes. If we earn less than $171,050 we’ll be in the 22% tax bracket. If we earn less than $326,600 we’ll be in the 24% bracket. That’s a ton of income, so I it’s not worth look at the 32% tax on incomes over $326,601. This almost guarantees that our effective tax rate would be less than 20%. (If you didn’t know, you pay all the taxes as you move up in the bracket, landing in a high tax bracket doesn’t mean all your income is suddenly taxed at that number.)

It’s hard to imagine we’d make over $326,000 in retirement, but it isn’t impossible. My wife may get a $60,000 pension that’s indexed for inflation. We might have income of $45,000 from rental properties (which will naturally adjust for inflation). We have a few other income sources (blogging, my dog sitting, etc.) that could add up to around another $50,000. My wife may continue to work that brings home an income. That would be around $150,000 before we account for withdrawing money from the IRAs. There’s not much room left in the 22% bracket, but still plenty of room in the 24% bracket.

So we wouldn’t pay too much more than the expected 20% in taxes except for two possible scenarios:

1. The brackets get lowered over time. I think there’s a strong possibility that this happens. We can imagine that at some point we want to fix the national debt and one way to do that is to raise taxes by lowering the bracket thresholds. If the $326,000 bracket gets dropped to $200,000, we might risk running into the 32% bracket easier. Alternatively, the tax rate may go up, which would conceivably be the same thing.

2. At age 70-something, we might have to pay Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). I write “70-something” because the RMD age has changed recently and there’s legislation for it to potentially change again. In any likely scenario we’d be forced to take a percentage of our nest egg as regular income at age 70 or later. Since my wife and I are 45 years old, we may have 25 years of compound interest. With that much time, our pre-tax retirement accounts could be a big number, leading to taking a big distribution in our 70s. Social Security will still exist (in some form) and some simulations say that will be another $60,000 of income.

Some combination of #1 and #2 will likely happen. It’s always difficult to plan for “what ifs” in the future, but it never hurts to be prepared.

I’ve been writing a ton about taxes, but having access to money earlier rather than waiting until age 59.5 would be ideal. Fortunately, it’s possible to get access to the money early, while also potentially limiting high tax brackets in the future.

There are two ways we can access our IRAs early:

1. We can take Substantially Equal Periodic Payment (SEPP). That means that we commit to taking an amount of money out of our IRAs as determined by an IRS formula. We’d have to continue it until age 59.5 or face big penalties… with interest. It’s not a bad plan, but I don’t like to have to withdraw money based on what an IRS formula says we should. I also don’t like to be locked into 10-15 year decisions.

2. We can use a Roth IRA conversion ladder to move money from our pre-tax IRA to a Roth IRA. We’ll have to pay the taxes on the income immediately, but that sets up two very good scenarios. First, we can withdraw the money, tax-free, after 5 years. Second, we can let the money grow while not having to worry about taxes. The first scenario would give us access to money, penalty-free. The second scenario gives us the flexibility to decide not to take the money if we don’t need it.

I’m 90% sure that the Roth IRA conversion is the way to go. Getting access to money tax-free in 5 years is about as good as we could hope for.

There’s one small problem with a Roth IRA conversion. Paying taxes up-front can be tough. If we were to convert $50,000, we’d have to pay $10,000 in taxes (and we can’t use that $50,000). When you are trying to get through 5 years because you don’t have access to that retirement money, it’s not easy to come up with $10,000. That’s when I had an idea. Since you can take out Roth IRA contributions at any time, we could use our previous Roth IRA contributions to pay off the taxes on our IRAs. Under normal circumstances, you won’t want to pull those Roth IRA contributions out. However, pulling $10,000 out means putting $50,000 in, so I’m sure the personal finance experts won’t mind.

At the end of the day, all this essentially guarantees us paying around a low 20-ish% marginal tax rate, while giving us access to money in five years. Locking in that tax rate now is valuable, because I feel that taxes will rise in the future. Of course, I’ve felt this way for a long time and it doesn’t happen. Politicians don’t like the idea of raising taxes as it’s unpopular with almost all voters. At some point, I think we’ll simply need to do it.

My Biggest Money Mistake

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My Biggest Money Mistake

For whatever reason, people love to ask me about my biggest money mistake. Other bloggers will ask it when they are compiling a top ten article. For a few years, I had gave some answers, but I didn’t have any strong conviction behind them. There was a brief period of day trading after college. I also bought a convertible after college. Basically, the “after college” time wouldn’t make many of my financial highlight reels.

However, in hindsight, I don’t think either were big money mistakes. I didn’t lose too much day trading and I learned a lot. I still have the Mustang convertible today (20 years later) and have paid roughly about $1400 a year (or a little more than $115/mo.) for it. Things could have been a lot worse.

I think it’s difficult for many people to talk about their biggest money mistakes. In about 99.9% of the cases, it is because they are embarrassed that they made the mistake in the first place. I’m finding it difficult to write about my financial mistake, but for a completely different reason. My biggest money mistake comes from a situation when it’s considered a “good problem to have” such as having two great starting quarterbacks or being at a great buffet and realizing that you only have one stomach. (Does anyone remember buffets?) Because most people would love to have this kind of problem, it may sound tone-deaf. If so, I’m sorry in advance.

I Saved Too Much for Retirement

For years, I made it my mission to max out my retirement accounts the best I could. As a software engineer, I was pretty successful. As a blogger, less so. My wife, as a pharmacist was able to max out her retirement accounts as well. It turns out that if you max out your retirement you can have a million dollars in 20 years. Neither of us are there, but, as you can imagine with our retirement accounts are not small. Given the stock market run of the last decade, maybe a lot of people find themselves in this situation.

In general, putting more money into retirement accounts is a smart move. You get to delay paying taxes during what is, for most people, their peak earning years. Then you can pull out the money and pay taxes on the smaller amount because you don’t have your main income. The downside to most retirement accounts is that you can’t easily access the money until you are older, typically around age 59.5.

Having too much money in the future isn’t the problem. The big money mistake is that the money we have access now is 7% of that retirement nest egg. That’s not a lot of liquid cash.

I should have planned it so that we set aside 35-45% of the money to use now and 55-65% that we can use later in retirement accounts. It’s a lopsided situation, where it feels like we are just getting by now, but are set up to have a lot more money in the future.

That’s why we stopped retirement contributions, with the exception of Roth IRAs. We continue to contribute to Roth IRAs because we can pull those contributions out at any time without a penalty. In fact, the ability to do this may turn out to be very important in the future, but we’ll put that aside for the follow-up article.

There was another reason why we put so much money for the future. Simply put, we could. We didn’t have kids for a long time, so the dual-income, no kids gave us a lot of financial flexibility. More importantly, we have my wife’s military pension and rental properties to help supply income before retirement. Unfortunately, we still have to wait five years for the mortgages on those rental properties to be paid off. They won’t produce income until then.

There’s one other “problem” with this lopsided situation. When you combine a pension, rental income, and a big IRAs it has the potential to lead to a high tax bill. The IRA disbursements are taxed as regular income which may be 37%, or (much likely) even higher in the future. I’ve forgotten a lot of math over the years, but if memory serves, the commutative property of multiplication means that it doesn’t really matter when you pay the taxes, you just want to pay the lower amount. If we had invested money in a regular taxable account, it could be subject to long-term capital gains rate which maxes out at 20%. The money could also be invested in a way that paid qualified dividends that would realistically max out at 15% for us. (You need over $500,000 in qualified dividends a year for a married couple to get to the 20% range.)

If we could pay taxes of between 15-20% it would be a lot better than paying taxes of 40%.

Fixing My Biggest Money Mistake

Sometimes there are problems you can’t fix. As the saying goes, you can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube.

Fortunately, in this case, there are some things we can do. OThe solutions that I initially found were less than ideal. However, with a little more time and focus, I think I’ve found some ways that it won’t be so terrible…

… but that will be an article for another day. Update: Read Fixing My Biggest Money Mistake.

How to Teach Your Teen Investing

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They say that best writers steal ideas from others and make them their own. I’m not sure about stealing, but I have to admit that my ideas come from the input of others. That can be from books, newspapers, blog articles, television, essentially any media. Usually, making them my own involves adding some of my own thoughts, opinions, and commentary. (On very rare occasions it involves adding comedy.) Occasionally, the idea is so good, I don’t have anything else to add – I’m simply pointing to it to make you aware of it. This is one of those cases.

Today I’m stealing borrowing from Jonathan of My Money Blog. I’ve been reading his blog for more than 15 years as it inspired me to create Lazy Man and Money. He flies under the radar in the personal finance space. However, his research and content is always top-notch. The latest example is a gem from NPR’s Planet Money. They’ve had a “summer school” where they taught investing at a basic level.

If you are new to investing, this will be a great listen. However, I agree with Jonathan that it would be a great course for my kids when they are teenagers. A small sliver of why I’m writing this today is to document it and hopefully see it a few years in the future to revisit with them.

How to Teach Your Teen Investing

Jonathan’s article, Weekend Listening: NPR Planet Money Summer School Investing Edition, lays out the course’s syllabus:

  • Episode 1: The Stock Market
  • Episode 2: Index Funds & The Bet
  • Episode 3: Smooth Spending & The 401K
  • Episode 4: Bonds & Becky With The Good Yield
  • Episode 5: Bubbles, Bikes, & Biases
  • Episode 6: Crypto & Commencement

I have to admit that I haven’t listened to the whole course. It’s not designed for the personal finance blogger who has been investing for thirty years. If you feel like you know the basics of investing, you may want to skip this course. That’s why I’m targetted it towards teens for the readers here. (That’s also an idea that I stole from Jonathan.)

You can get the whole podcast at Planet Money Summer School. I’m not a podcast person, but I’m guessing you can get it through the mobile app of your choice by searching for “Planet Money Summer School.” Each episode is a little more than a half hour long.

When you are done, there is a the final exam. I took the exam before listening to the episodes and only got 5 of 8 correct. The ones I got wrong were historical or based on nomenclature, where I knew the concept, but not the precise term for it. Give it a try and see how you do.

Is this the perfect way to teach investing? Nope. My kids are 7 and 8, so I have a few years before the teenage years. I don’t imagine they’ll want to listen to this podcast without some kind of carrot stick. However, I do believe it can be one of the tools in your toolbox if you want to teach your kids about money.

Looking for something else? This investing course is actually season 2 of the Planet Money’s Summer School. Season 1 covers Microeconomics concepts.