Comments on: This is the Time that Fortunes are Made http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/ Saving, Earning, and Investing Money Sat, 11 Feb 2012 03:58:23 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: pfodyssey http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-64663 pfodyssey Thu, 21 Feb 2008 17:10:26 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-64663 I'm trying to position for the long term: * Commodities, any kind of natural resource...including water! - see nowhere to go but up due to growth in world demand. * Healthcare - regardless of our policies, I think it is solid longer term. * International - I already have about 25% of my portfolio here (15% emerging mkts, 8% Europe)...am beginning to think as much as 50% overall is not ridiculous. Looking to balance out countries (add Latin America? Middle East / Africa?) and find a way to get some exposure in small caps (5%?). Foreign currency - still very much considering FDIC insured CDs (but still have currency risk) I pushed in a few more thousand here and there in January (commodities). I have 18% of my portfolio in T Rowe Price Cap Allocation (has been very nice offset to recent losses) and had been looking to allocate some of that to some of the more downtrodden investments. However, I haven't actually done so...yet. Unfortunately, between fully funding my 401(k) and Roth IRA, there is not a lot of free cash readily available (thus the potential shift of Cap Allocation fund). I do have a large cash position in 12 mos CDs ($100+K @5.2%), but is for potential home purchase and so "off limits" to equities. I’m trying to position for the long term:

* Commodities, any kind of natural resource…including water! – see nowhere to go but up due to growth in world demand.
* Healthcare – regardless of our policies, I think it is solid longer term.
* International – I already have about 25% of my portfolio here (15% emerging mkts, 8% Europe)…am beginning to think as much as 50% overall is not ridiculous. Looking to balance out countries (add Latin America? Middle East / Africa?) and find a way to get some exposure in small caps (5%?).
Foreign currency – still very much considering FDIC insured CDs (but still have currency risk)

I pushed in a few more thousand here and there in January (commodities). I have 18% of my portfolio in T Rowe Price Cap Allocation (has been very nice offset to recent losses) and had been looking to allocate some of that to some of the more downtrodden investments. However, I haven’t actually done so…yet.

Unfortunately, between fully funding my 401(k) and Roth IRA, there is not a lot of free cash readily available (thus the potential shift of Cap Allocation fund). I do have a large cash position in 12 mos CDs ($100+K @5.2%), but is for potential home purchase and so “off limits” to equities.

]]> By: Adfecto http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-60263 Adfecto Thu, 14 Feb 2008 22:05:57 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-60263 Ah hindsight. I'm an index guy so you won't get much from me other than keep buying the index and don't look back. MSCI All World is my pick. It has domestic, international (developed), and emerging markets. Get them through Vanguard for low expenses. If the media keeps up its drum beat of recession and bad news (as I expect it will) then maybe mid-year or even as late as early next year it may be a good time to be REITs but again I'd go with an index. For right this minute TIPS and/or Muni bonds may not be a bad place to be either. All of my suggestions come from my 30+ year time horizon. Check back then to see how I've done ;-) Ah hindsight. I’m an index guy so you won’t get much from me other than keep buying the index and don’t look back. MSCI All World is my pick. It has domestic, international (developed), and emerging markets. Get them through Vanguard for low expenses. If the media keeps up its drum beat of recession and bad news (as I expect it will) then maybe mid-year or even as late as early next year it may be a good time to be REITs but again I’d go with an index. For right this minute TIPS and/or Muni bonds may not be a bad place to be either. All of my suggestions come from my 30+ year time horizon. Check back then to see how I’ve done ;-)

]]> By: Writer's Coin http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-59153 Writer's Coin Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:53:58 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-59153 I'm planning to plow my regular amounts into my Roth IRA and leaving it at that. But you're right, non retirement accounts should be policed more closely and selling has a place. And that's from me, a buy and hold fanatic. I’m planning to plow my regular amounts into my Roth IRA and leaving it at that. But you’re right, non retirement accounts should be policed more closely and selling has a place. And that’s from me, a buy and hold fanatic.

]]> By: Dividendgrowth http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58958 Dividendgrowth Tue, 12 Feb 2008 21:31:35 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58958 I think that every day that the stock market is open there is an opportunity to make a fortune or to lose one. I would keep on buying dividend aristocrats, get increasing dividends because I am there for the long run.. I think that every day that the stock market is open there is an opportunity to make a fortune or to lose one. I would keep on buying dividend aristocrats, get increasing dividends because I am there for the long run..

]]> By: rstlne http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58806 rstlne Tue, 12 Feb 2008 17:46:32 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58806 I'm using this bear market to pick up more income and royalty trusts. I've done this quite a number of times before and the double-whammy of high yield and stock price recovery can be quite impressive. I also already have precious metals but will get more on dips. I’m using this bear market to pick up more income and royalty trusts. I’ve done this quite a number of times before and the double-whammy of high yield and stock price recovery can be quite impressive.

I also already have precious metals but will get more on dips.

]]> By: Lazy Man http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58734 Lazy Man Tue, 12 Feb 2008 16:24:16 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58734 I don't believe that long term is always for keeps. Some stocks don't pay dividends, so you need to think about selling them at some point. My theory is that if the stock triples in 5 years and looks expensive based on whatever metrics you use (earnings, growth, product line, etc.), you are wise to take some money off the table and look for another cheap stock. If it takes 10-20 years for it get expensive, then sell some of it off then. "Overall it's a buying opportunity right now. But uncertain times mean unpredictable short term, so hedge your bets and be prepared to wait for your returns." That's what I'm saying. There are companies that getting hurt through no fault of their own. They are still executing and bringing in earnings. As long as you can weather the storm (which I think is 5-10 years max, more likely 2 years), this is a good time to make a huge amount of money. I don’t believe that long term is always for keeps. Some stocks don’t pay dividends, so you need to think about selling them at some point.

My theory is that if the stock triples in 5 years and looks expensive based on whatever metrics you use (earnings, growth, product line, etc.), you are wise to take some money off the table and look for another cheap stock. If it takes 10-20 years for it get expensive, then sell some of it off then.

“Overall it’s a buying opportunity right now. But uncertain times mean unpredictable short term, so hedge your bets and be prepared to wait for your returns.”

That’s what I’m saying. There are companies that getting hurt through no fault of their own. They are still executing and bringing in earnings. As long as you can weather the storm (which I think is 5-10 years max, more likely 2 years), this is a good time to make a huge amount of money.

]]> By: East Side Food Geek http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58357 East Side Food Geek Tue, 12 Feb 2008 05:52:03 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58357 "If you think that Google is going to be $1000 in ten years would you rather have paid $500 for it or $740 for it? I think your return will be much better if you pay the $500." Ah, you see, that's gambler's thinking. First, you aren't choosing between $750 and $500. Stock is not a consumer good, and it's not a savings account. It's capital. You have $500, and you want to know where to put it. Second, five years is not long term investing. Long term investing is for keeps. I've made 1200 percent in the last seven years. A little of that is based on gambling (for a while there it was SO predictable how Wall Street would react to Apple), but most of it I made just buying good companies and holding on. Individual stocks are not predictable enough to worry about a month or two. You lose as much as you gain that way. Be cold blooded. Figure out what you want in your portfolio, and then when you have the money, buy the best value among your options. Overall it's a buying opportunity right now. But uncertain times mean unpredictable short term, so hedge your bets and be prepared to wait for your returns. “If you think that Google is going to be $1000 in ten years would you rather have paid $500 for it or $740 for it? I think your return will be much better if you pay the $500.”

Ah, you see, that’s gambler’s thinking. First, you aren’t choosing between $750 and $500. Stock is not a consumer good, and it’s not a savings account. It’s capital. You have $500, and you want to know where to put it. Second, five years is not long term investing. Long term investing is for keeps.

I’ve made 1200 percent in the last seven years. A little of that is based on gambling (for a while there it was SO predictable how Wall Street would react to Apple), but most of it I made just buying good companies and holding on.

Individual stocks are not predictable enough to worry about a month or two. You lose as much as you gain that way. Be cold blooded. Figure out what you want in your portfolio, and then when you have the money, buy the best value among your options.

Overall it’s a buying opportunity right now. But uncertain times mean unpredictable short term, so hedge your bets and be prepared to wait for your returns.

]]> By: aa http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58332 aa Tue, 12 Feb 2008 05:23:02 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58332 It looks like the market is going sideway. Buy gold, silver, oil, bear ETFs! It looks like the market is going sideway.

Buy gold, silver, oil, bear ETFs!

]]> By: Ben http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58307 Ben Tue, 12 Feb 2008 04:47:06 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58307 An age old principle, how did Baron von Rothschild put it? Something about buying when blood runs in the streets. There may not be rivers of blood but there is certainly a flood of uncertainty and doubt. An age old principle, how did Baron von Rothschild put it? Something about buying when blood runs in the streets. There may not be rivers of blood but there is certainly a flood of uncertainty and doubt.

]]> By: Wylie http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58278 Wylie Tue, 12 Feb 2008 04:06:15 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58278 "If you're in it for the long term, what difference does whether it goes up or down in a few months make?" It makes a big difference when "it" goes up or down a lot! In addition to Banks and Finance ETFs, I've been watching agricultural commodities: http://wyliemoney.blogspot.com/2007/12/speculating-on-food-and-finance.html Buying on dips can certainly be part of a plan: http://wyliemoney.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-to-buy-mutual-funds-part-ii.html I have been tracking mutual funds based on categories 'large cap stock' for example, but I think a better plan might have been to focus on sectors- Finance, Health Care, etc. Either way, I keep an eye on this for the big picture: http://www.morningstar.com/cover/pfvgraph.html Good luck investing! Wylie “If you’re in it for the long term, what difference does whether it goes up or down in a few months make?”

It makes a big difference when “it” goes up or down a lot!

In addition to Banks and Finance ETFs, I’ve been watching agricultural commodities:

http://wyliemoney.blogspot.com/2007/12/speculating-on-food-and-finance.html

Buying on dips can certainly be part of a plan:

http://wyliemoney.blogspot.com/2007/04/when-to-buy-mutual-funds-part-ii.html

I have been tracking mutual funds based on categories ‘large cap stock’ for example, but I think a better plan might have been to focus on sectors- Finance, Health Care, etc.

Either way, I keep an eye on this for the big picture:

http://www.morningstar.com/cover/pfvgraph.html

Good luck investing!

Wylie

]]> By: Lazy Man http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58122 Lazy Man Tue, 12 Feb 2008 00:31:26 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58122 Let's say that you are in Google for the long term - 5 years in this case. If you bought it at around $700 (it's high), it might take all five of those years for you to break even. However, buying at $500 (as it was a couple of days ago), gives you a better return. If you think that Google is going to be $1000 in ten years would you rather have paid $500 for it or $740 for it? I think your return will be much better if you pay the $500. Let’s say that you are in Google for the long term – 5 years in this case. If you bought it at around $700 (it’s high), it might take all five of those years for you to break even. However, buying at $500 (as it was a couple of days ago), gives you a better return.

If you think that Google is going to be $1000 in ten years would you rather have paid $500 for it or $740 for it? I think your return will be much better if you pay the $500.

]]> By: East Side Food Geek http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/comment-page-1/#comment-58079 East Side Food Geek Mon, 11 Feb 2008 23:13:34 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/this-is-the-time-that-fortunes-are-made/#comment-58079 If you're in it for the long term, what difference does whether it goes up or down in a few months make? Sure we all like to do a little market timing, but that's not smart, that's gambling. And though it is fun, it isn't a plan. How do you want to balance your portfolio? IMHO you pick your stocks, and the balance you want to keep them in. Revisit which you most like LONG TERM and which you have second thoughts about LONG TERM. If you have money, buy the low stocks to bring them up to proportion. If you need money, sell your winners. I don't think anybody will regret waiting a bit, but overall, we're at the start of a good buying period. If you’re in it for the long term, what difference does whether it goes up or down in a few months make? Sure we all like to do a little market timing, but that’s not smart, that’s gambling. And though it is fun, it isn’t a plan.

How do you want to balance your portfolio? IMHO you pick your stocks, and the balance you want to keep them in. Revisit which you most like LONG TERM and which you have second thoughts about LONG TERM. If you have money, buy the low stocks to bring them up to proportion. If you need money, sell your winners.

I don’t think anybody will regret waiting a bit, but overall, we’re at the start of a good buying period.

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