Comments on: Oils Well That Ends Well http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/ Saving, Earning, and Investing Money Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:22:17 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Goalhunter http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-117985 Goalhunter Mon, 08 Dec 2008 18:07:34 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-117985 Oil is critical and limited. That's why it shot up before, but it shot up too fast so it had to peter out at some point. I don't know what the price to get in is (I'm like you, my stocks nosedived) but there will be a limit. We have enough oil for, I don't know, 50 or 75 years or something like that at current reserves and production. Every year is going to be a big exponential number. If it's 50 years, one year is 2%. When it gets to 25, one year is 4%. When it gets to 10, 1 year is 10%. There will be incredible inflation on oil in the future; that's guaranteed. Since people look forward, you can expect these % changes to be amplified. Oil is a rock solid investment. Even if you lost half your money you'll get it back. Oil is critical and limited. That’s why it shot up before, but it shot up too fast so it had to peter out at some point. I don’t know what the price to get in is (I’m like you, my stocks nosedived) but there will be a limit. We have enough oil for, I don’t know, 50 or 75 years or something like that at current reserves and production. Every year is going to be a big exponential number. If it’s 50 years, one year is 2%. When it gets to 25, one year is 4%. When it gets to 10, 1 year is 10%.

There will be incredible inflation on oil in the future; that’s guaranteed. Since people look forward, you can expect these % changes to be amplified.

Oil is a rock solid investment. Even if you lost half your money you’ll get it back.

]]> By: Harry http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-117703 Harry Thu, 04 Dec 2008 12:29:41 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-117703 Americans are still the primary buyers, and we cannot afford to pay more than $5 a gallon, so we’re hitching rides, carpooling, and taking the subway more often. Many people I know have already switched to those 10hr/day, 4-day/wk work schedules to save gas.but I did get out timed on KOL as coal tailspin then rebounded.It is now very depressed and I will reenter soon Americans are still the primary buyers, and we cannot afford to pay more than $5 a gallon, so we’re hitching rides, carpooling, and taking the subway more often. Many people I know have already switched to those 10hr/day, 4-day/wk work schedules to save gas.but I did get out timed on KOL as coal tailspin then rebounded.It is now very depressed and I will reenter soon

]]> By: Lazy Man http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116582 Lazy Man Tue, 25 Nov 2008 17:08:27 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116582 That's not the only reason. I believe that China and India will be larger consumers of oil in the next 5-10 years. With increasing demand and a diminishing supply (oil isn't being added to the Earth very fast even if we keep finding it), it seems like a recipe that Graham would approve of. I haven't read a lot of Graham, but it's worth noting that a commodity that the world needs to function is not like speculating on a single company. That’s not the only reason. I believe that China and India will be larger consumers of oil in the next 5-10 years. With increasing demand and a diminishing supply (oil isn’t being added to the Earth very fast even if we keep finding it), it seems like a recipe that Graham would approve of.

I haven’t read a lot of Graham, but it’s worth noting that a commodity that the world needs to function is not like speculating on a single company.

]]> By: dannygutters http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116579 dannygutters Tue, 25 Nov 2008 16:43:45 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116579 Are you kidding, your entire basis for buying that oil fund was to look at a historical price from 6 months ago? Grahamn is disappointed in you from beyond the grave. There may be a good reason to buy oil at 60 but the previous price of a fund is not it. Are you kidding, your entire basis for buying that oil fund was to look at a historical price from 6 months ago? Grahamn is disappointed in you from beyond the grave. There may be a good reason to buy oil at 60 but the previous price of a fund is not it.

]]> By: Mike http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116474 Mike Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:56:56 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116474 Once it gets to $40 oil is a good buy. It probably should be priced between $60 and $80 except when the entire world is in a deep recession, but still a little too high to invest right now. Once it gets to $40 oil is a good buy. It probably should be priced between $60 and $80 except when the entire world is in a deep recession, but still a little too high to invest right now.

]]> By: Manshu http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116422 Manshu Tue, 25 Nov 2008 02:08:51 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116422 I think oil is going to touch 100 bucks, but not in the near future. I just don't see the same kind of speculation in it, that happened earlier. I think oil is going to touch 100 bucks, but not in the near future. I just don’t see the same kind of speculation in it, that happened earlier.

]]> By: ike http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116376 ike Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:38:35 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116376 updating My comments bought more USO and it has started up though profit taking will set in.Range no problem but I did get outtimed on KOL as coal tailspun then rebounded.It is now very depressed and I will reenter soon but I know Coal is NOT Oil. ike updating My comments bought more USO and it has started up though profit taking will set in.Range no problem but I did get outtimed on KOL as coal tailspun then rebounded.It is now very depressed and I will reenter soon but I know Coal is NOT Oil.
ike

]]> By: The Slacker http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116337 The Slacker Mon, 24 Nov 2008 18:48:19 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116337 I agree with you Lazy Man, I think this is a good time to get into oil. Futures are already starting to jump due to expectations of a supply decrease. I like the concept of your blog, check out my blog when you get a chance. http://www.theslackermethod.com I agree with you Lazy Man, I think this is a good time to get into oil. Futures are already starting to jump due to expectations of a supply decrease.

I like the concept of your blog, check out my blog when you get a chance.

http://www.theslackermethod.com

]]> By: Lazy Man http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116194 Lazy Man Sun, 23 Nov 2008 17:12:17 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116194 I don't know why it's prudent to get out at a predetermined stop loss with regard to oil. I don't think there's a fear that it's ever going to go to zero. Barrels of oil aren't going out of business. I don’t know why it’s prudent to get out at a predetermined stop loss with regard to oil. I don’t think there’s a fear that it’s ever going to go to zero. Barrels of oil aren’t going out of business.

]]> By: DoubleOurMoney http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116191 DoubleOurMoney Sun, 23 Nov 2008 16:33:22 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116191 If you want to stay in oil then you dollar cost average and buy more shares, if you want to be prudent then you get out at a predetermined stop loss and wait for a trend up before getting back in. If you want to stay in oil then you dollar cost average and buy more shares, if you want to be prudent then you get out at a predetermined stop loss and wait for a trend up before getting back in.

]]> By: appfunds http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116176 appfunds Sun, 23 Nov 2008 12:36:10 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116176 I`d take some oil instead of worthless greenbacks. That`s another bubble to burst - I mean the dollar. I`d take some oil instead of worthless greenbacks. That`s another bubble to burst – I mean the dollar.

]]> By: Jeff http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116094 Jeff Sat, 22 Nov 2008 18:43:13 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116094 Oil is a boom and bust business. It always has been and always will be. Its gone down 60 percent from its highs twice in the last 20 years. Oil prices revert to the mean, and so do stock returns. Oil prices are not linear. When supplies go down, relative to demand, prices go up. Then exploration and production increase. Then supply overshoots demand and prices crash, like now. Production and demand are never in balance with oil. Its a cycle that will repeat itslef over and over again. The best cure for high prices are high prices. And thats never more true than in oil. The low dollar contributed to the high prices and speculation. And even now supplies of oil and natural gas are increasing as demand decreases. Anyone who believed high oil prices were going to continue, without abatement, is a fool. Oil is a boom and bust business. It always has been and always will be. Its gone down 60 percent from its highs twice in the last 20 years. Oil prices revert to the mean, and so do stock returns. Oil prices are not linear. When supplies go down, relative to demand, prices go up. Then exploration and production increase. Then supply overshoots demand and prices crash, like now. Production and demand are never in balance with oil. Its a cycle that will repeat itslef over and over again. The best cure for high prices are high prices. And thats never more true than in oil. The low dollar contributed to the high prices and speculation. And even now supplies of oil and natural gas are increasing as demand decreases. Anyone who believed high oil prices were going to continue, without abatement, is a fool.

]]> By: ike http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116068 ike Sat, 22 Nov 2008 11:36:42 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116068 bought uso when oil was near 60.will add as needed under that and wait for oil at 80 which is still half of bubble high.Summer driving we will get 3 dollar a gallon again and be happy it isn't 4.No drill baby drill here just slowing and light move to alternatives. ike bought uso when oil was near 60.will add as needed under that and wait for oil at 80 which is still half of bubble high.Summer driving we will get 3 dollar a gallon again and be happy it isn’t 4.No drill baby drill here just slowing and light move to alternatives.
ike

]]> By: Ryuko http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-116061 Ryuko Sat, 22 Nov 2008 09:57:20 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-116061 Here's my speculation: Oil is down because demand is down. Fact is, Americans are still the primary buyers, and we cannot afford to pay more than $5 a gallon, so we're hitching rides, carpooling, and taking the subway more often. Many people I know have already switched to those 10hr/day, 4-day/wk work schedules to save gas. Add in the credit crunch that accompanied the housing bubble stupidity, and that is why gas didn't go up any higher. The trouble w/ the Big 3 and increase in percentage of high-efficiency foreign cars is also helping things out. My opinion is that this chain effect will help make prices all over the nation go down somewhat, which will help those of us who still have jobs to start pouring more money back into the economy. For now. Now that we're in a recession, prices will drop until people are comfortable, and then things will start to go up again. Thing is, we got caught with our pants down in our love affair w/ oil. It spiked, and I don't think anyone wants to see that again - therefore, I see a huge push in the next few years for alternative energy and energy conservancy. However, fact remains that 1) supplies are limited and peak oil has been reached 2) many major 3rd-world countries will continue to increase their demand for oil over the next couple decades and 3) new technologies will take at least a decade to become commonplace (probably longer). $200 a barrel oil is coming, and it will hurt. But it's not going to be the Great Depression all over again, unless something else really big happens. Remember what cause the Great Depression? It wasn't just wall-street collapsing. Europe was already in recession from WWI. Germany and it's allies were devastated. China was defeated and the Japanese were roaming the Pacific and fighting an expensive war with Russia. Outside the US, the rest of the world was in no shape to handle a major economic hiccup like Black Tuesday. No, we will need a much more dramatic event to trigger such a depression. It will probably happen, but there is not yet any way to know what it will be. Here’s my speculation:
Oil is down because demand is down. Fact is, Americans are still the primary buyers, and we cannot afford to pay more than $5 a gallon, so we’re hitching rides, carpooling, and taking the subway more often. Many people I know have already switched to those 10hr/day, 4-day/wk work schedules to save gas. Add in the credit crunch that accompanied the housing bubble stupidity, and that is why gas didn’t go up any higher. The trouble w/ the Big 3 and increase in percentage of high-efficiency foreign cars is also helping things out. My opinion is that this chain effect will help make prices all over the nation go down somewhat, which will help those of us who still have jobs to start pouring more money back into the economy. For now.
Now that we’re in a recession, prices will drop until people are comfortable, and then things will start to go up again.

Thing is, we got caught with our pants down in our love affair w/ oil. It spiked, and I don’t think anyone wants to see that again – therefore, I see a huge push in the next few years for alternative energy and energy conservancy. However, fact remains that 1) supplies are limited and peak oil has been reached 2) many major 3rd-world countries will continue to increase their demand for oil over the next couple decades and 3) new technologies will take at least a decade to become commonplace (probably longer). $200 a barrel oil is coming, and it will hurt. But it’s not going to be the Great Depression all over again, unless something else really big happens.

Remember what cause the Great Depression? It wasn’t just wall-street collapsing. Europe was already in recession from WWI. Germany and it’s allies were devastated. China was defeated and the Japanese were roaming the Pacific and fighting an expensive war with Russia. Outside the US, the rest of the world was in no shape to handle a major economic hiccup like Black Tuesday. No, we will need a much more dramatic event to trigger such a depression. It will probably happen, but there is not yet any way to know what it will be.

]]> By: Marc Goodin http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-115973 Marc Goodin Sat, 22 Nov 2008 01:15:55 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-115973 Right now i say buy almost anything for the long term. Oil, gold and dividend stocks for sure will be up 25% over the next year. Right now i say buy almost anything for the long term. Oil, gold and dividend stocks for sure will be up 25% over the next year.

]]> By: ChristianPF http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-115908 ChristianPF Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:48:23 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-115908 I am with you with grabbing up some index fund shares... The market has taken an astronomical dive and I want to take advantage of the ride back up. I am with you with grabbing up some index fund shares… The market has taken an astronomical dive and I want to take advantage of the ride back up.

]]> By: Early Retirement Extreme http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-115902 Early Retirement Extreme Fri, 21 Nov 2008 18:02:03 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-115902 We'll see $250 oil. Just wait until this semi-depression is over and the BRIC countries ramp up again. We’ll see $250 oil. Just wait until this semi-depression is over and the BRIC countries ramp up again.

]]> By: Lazy Man http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-115899 Lazy Man Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:45:28 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-115899 I still like oil a lot more than gold. The world has a massive need for oil. If gold disappeared, we'd lose a fantastic conductor of electricity, but I don't think the world would come to a grinding halt. I still like oil a lot more than gold. The world has a massive need for oil. If gold disappeared, we’d lose a fantastic conductor of electricity, but I don’t think the world would come to a grinding halt.

]]> By: Mr. ToughMoneyLove http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/oils-well-that-ends-well/comment-page-1/#comment-115895 Mr. ToughMoneyLove Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:31:52 +0000 http://www.lazymanandmoney.com/?p=1226#comment-115895 Now that oil has proven itself to be highly volatile commodity, I would move out of an oil specific fund and into a broader commodity ETF/fund and/or energy ETF/fund. Speculation by so-called experts about crude oil prices is now as reliable as speculation about gold prices. Now that oil has proven itself to be highly volatile commodity, I would move out of an oil specific fund and into a broader commodity ETF/fund and/or energy ETF/fund. Speculation by so-called experts about crude oil prices is now as reliable as speculation about gold prices.

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